Republican incumbent Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in Texas’s 4th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent partisan lean and limited opposition. The district, which spans Dallas exurbs such as Frisco and extends to the Red River communities of Sherman and Paris, has delivered Republican presidential margins above 60 percent in recent cycles and carries a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. Fallon secured renomination in the March primary without significant challenge, while the Democratic nominee remains a low-visibility contender with minimal fundraising or polling presence. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers to a partisan flip. Only an unforeseen event, such as an incumbent withdrawal or national political realignment exceeding historical norms, would plausibly alter the outcome before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$29,522 交易量
$29,522 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
94%
民主黨
6%
$29,522 交易量
$29,522 交易量
2026-11-03
共和黨
$14,610 交易量
94%
民主黨
$14,913 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in Texas’s 4th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent partisan lean and limited opposition. The district, which spans Dallas exurbs such as Frisco and extends to the Red River communities of Sherman and Paris, has delivered Republican presidential margins above 60 percent in recent cycles and carries a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. Fallon secured renomination in the March primary without significant challenge, while the Democratic nominee remains a low-visibility contender with minimal fundraising or polling presence. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers to a partisan flip. Only an unforeseen event, such as an incumbent withdrawal or national political realignment exceeding historical norms, would plausibly alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$29,522結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in Texas’s 4th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent partisan lean and limited opposition. The district, which spans Dallas exurbs such as Frisco and extends to the Red River communities of Sherman and Paris, has delivered Republican presidential margins above 60 percent in recent cycles and carries a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. Fallon secured renomination in the March primary without significant challenge, while the Democratic nominee remains a low-visibility contender with minimal fundraising or polling presence. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers to a partisan flip. Only an unforeseen event, such as an incumbent withdrawal or national political realignment exceeding historical norms, would plausibly alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$29,522結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Pat Fallon holds a commanding position in Texas’s 4th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s consistent partisan lean and limited opposition. The district, which spans Dallas exurbs such as Frisco and extends to the Red River communities of Sherman and Paris, has delivered Republican presidential margins above 60 percent in recent cycles and carries a partisan voting index favoring the GOP by double digits. Fallon secured renomination in the March primary without significant challenge, while the Democratic nominee remains a low-visibility contender with minimal fundraising or polling presence. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the structural barriers to a partisan flip. Only an unforeseen event, such as an incumbent withdrawal or national political realignment exceeding historical norms, would plausibly alter the outcome before November.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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