**Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral race at 77.1% implied probability, well ahead of Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca at 20.4% and a long tail of other candidates mostly at 0.1–1.8%.** The October 4, 2026, election features a fragmented field of over two dozen candidates, with no one else approaching double digits in recent surveys. López Aliaga appears as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list after the original mayoral nominee resigned; confirmation of this arrangement by the JNE has positioned his ticket as the frontrunner. Polls from early-to-mid September (IEP, CIT, CPI) show him at 20–39% support, ahead of Bruce and Francis Allison Oyague, reflecting his prior mayoral tenure, party infrastructure, and voter recognition. Bruce trails as the main alternative but remains distant in head-to-head metrics. Low probabilities for the rest of the field stem from vote splitting across smaller parties and limited polling traction. The election remains weeks away, so late shifts in turnout or alliances could still affect the outcome, though current polling trends and candidate positioning underpin the market’s strong consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 77.2%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡 20.4%
Francis James Allison Oyague 1.8%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉 1.8%
$156,128 交易量
$156,128 交易量
拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加
77%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡
20%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
耶胡德·西蒙·穆納羅
<1%
聖地亞哥·羅森多·阿巴卡·萊昂
<1%
路易斯·伊薩埃爾·魯比奧·伊德羅戈
<1%
路易斯·阿爾貝托·烏埃特·托倫蒂諾
<1%
埃德加多·雷南·德·波馬爾·維斯卡拉
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
潔西卡·維維安娜·利納雷斯·羅梅羅
<1%
魯本·何塞·拉米雷斯·馬特奧
<1%
伊莉莎白·瑪麗亞·德爾·羅莎里奧·萊昂·欽查伊
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
奧斯瓦爾多·埃爾南·巴爾加斯·庫埃利亞
<1%
魯本·丹尼爾·博尼拉·埃斯皮諾薩
<1%
薩繆爾·馬科斯·達扎·泰佩
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
薩米爾·法蘭克·奎斯佩·卡瓦列羅
<1%
卡洛斯·阿爾貝托·特哈達·諾列加
<1%
拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加 77.2%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡 20.4%
Francis James Allison Oyague 1.8%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉 1.8%
$156,128 交易量
$156,128 交易量
拉斐爾·洛佩斯·阿利亞加
77%
卡洛斯·里卡多·布魯斯·蒙特斯·德·奧卡
20%
Francis James Allison Oyague
2%
丹尼爾·貝利扎里奧·烏雷斯蒂·埃萊拉
2%
Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli
1%
Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué
<1%
耶胡德·西蒙·穆納羅
<1%
聖地亞哥·羅森多·阿巴卡·萊昂
<1%
路易斯·伊薩埃爾·魯比奧·伊德羅戈
<1%
路易斯·阿爾貝托·烏埃特·托倫蒂諾
<1%
埃德加多·雷南·德·波馬爾·維斯卡拉
<1%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez
<1%
潔西卡·維維安娜·利納雷斯·羅梅羅
<1%
魯本·何塞·拉米雷斯·馬特奧
<1%
伊莉莎白·瑪麗亞·德爾·羅莎里奧·萊昂·欽查伊
<1%
Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés
<1%
Flor de María Hurtado Valdez
<1%
奧斯瓦爾多·埃爾南·巴爾加斯·庫埃利亞
<1%
魯本·丹尼爾·博尼拉·埃斯皮諾薩
<1%
薩繆爾·馬科斯·達扎·泰佩
<1%
Segundo Valdez Zavala
<1%
薩米爾·法蘭克·奎斯佩·卡瓦列羅
<1%
卡洛斯·阿爾貝托·特哈達·諾列加
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).
**Rafael López Aliaga leads the Lima mayoral race at 77.1% implied probability, well ahead of Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca at 20.4% and a long tail of other candidates mostly at 0.1–1.8%.** The October 4, 2026, election features a fragmented field of over two dozen candidates, with no one else approaching double digits in recent surveys. López Aliaga appears as first regidor on the Renovación Popular list after the original mayoral nominee resigned; confirmation of this arrangement by the JNE has positioned his ticket as the frontrunner. Polls from early-to-mid September (IEP, CIT, CPI) show him at 20–39% support, ahead of Bruce and Francis Allison Oyague, reflecting his prior mayoral tenure, party infrastructure, and voter recognition. Bruce trails as the main alternative but remains distant in head-to-head metrics. Low probabilities for the rest of the field stem from vote splitting across smaller parties and limited polling traction. The election remains weeks away, so late shifts in turnout or alliances could still affect the outcome, though current polling trends and candidate positioning underpin the market’s strong consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions