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icon for Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
地緣政治·烏克蘭

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

icon for Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
地緣政治·烏克蘭

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

$544,586 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$544,586 交易量

Polymarket
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Ursula von der Leyen

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Friedrich Merz

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Mark Carney

$12,142 交易量

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Mark Rutte

$9,818 交易量

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Emmanuel Macron

$7,800 交易量

14%

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António Guterres

$9,634 交易量

11%

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JD Vance

$146,812 交易量

8%

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Donald Trump

$108,979 交易量

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent regional diplomacy and U.S.-mediated talks shape probabilities in this market. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić visited western Ukraine on September 18 for the inaugural Carpathian 8 Summit in Bukovel, joined by Romanian President Nicușor Dan and other regional leaders, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has signaled an imminent trip. U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff conducted substantive meetings in Kyiv on September 6 following talks in Moscow, with confirmed plans for follow-up visits. These developments align with high trader-implied probabilities for Tusk near 89 percent and the envoys above 90 percent. Lower odds for figures such as Emmanuel Macron at 16 percent, JD Vance at 13 percent, and Donald Trump at 4 percent reflect fewer confirmed commitments amid stalled ceasefire efforts and the European Council’s October 15–16 session in Brussels. Scheduled events through year-end, including potential negotiation-linked travel, remain key variables.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$544,586
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent regional diplomacy and U.S.-mediated talks shape probabilities in this market. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić visited western Ukraine on September 18 for the inaugural Carpathian 8 Summit in Bukovel, joined by Romanian President Nicușor Dan and other regional leaders, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has signaled an imminent trip. U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff conducted substantive meetings in Kyiv on September 6 following talks in Moscow, with confirmed plans for follow-up visits. These developments align with high trader-implied probabilities for Tusk near 89 percent and the envoys above 90 percent. Lower odds for figures such as Emmanuel Macron at 16 percent, JD Vance at 13 percent, and Donald Trump at 4 percent reflect fewer confirmed commitments amid stalled ceasefire efforts and the European Council’s October 15–16 session in Brussels. Scheduled events through year-end, including potential negotiation-linked travel, remain key variables.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$544,586
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "António Costa" at 100%, followed by "Donald Tusk" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" has generated $544.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is "António Costa" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Donald Tusk" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.