A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, effective since April 8 following 40 days of airstrikes launched February 28, remains on "life support" amid stalled negotiations for broader de-escalation. Iranian military leaders stated on May 13 they are fully prepared for renewed conflict, while President Trump warned Tehran faces decimation without concessions on nuclear enrichment, missile limits, and proxy funding—demands echoed by Israeli analysts skeptical of progress. Direct bilateral diplomacy between Jerusalem and Tehran is absent, with no verified talks on a permanent peace deal; key barriers include sanctions, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional proxies like Hezbollah. Upcoming mediator sessions in Pakistan could shift dynamics, but historical animosity and verification challenges sustain trader caution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$829,302 交易量
2026-05-31
May 31
3%
6月30日
17%
$829,302 交易量
May 31
$243,677 交易量
3%
6月30日
$271,010 交易量
17%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, effective since April 8 following 40 days of airstrikes launched February 28, remains on "life support" amid stalled negotiations for broader de-escalation. Iranian military leaders stated on May 13 they are fully prepared for renewed conflict, while President Trump warned Tehran faces decimation without concessions on nuclear enrichment, missile limits, and proxy funding—demands echoed by Israeli analysts skeptical of progress. Direct bilateral diplomacy between Jerusalem and Tehran is absent, with no verified talks on a permanent peace deal; key barriers include sanctions, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional proxies like Hezbollah. Upcoming mediator sessions in Pakistan could shift dynamics, but historical animosity and verification challenges sustain trader caution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
交易量
$829,302結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, effective since April 8 following 40 days of airstrikes launched February 28, remains on "life support" amid stalled negotiations for broader de-escalation. Iranian military leaders stated on May 13 they are fully prepared for renewed conflict, while President Trump warned Tehran faces decimation without concessions on nuclear enrichment, missile limits, and proxy funding—demands echoed by Israeli analysts skeptical of progress. Direct bilateral diplomacy between Jerusalem and Tehran is absent, with no verified talks on a permanent peace deal; key barriers include sanctions, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional proxies like Hezbollah. Upcoming mediator sessions in Pakistan could shift dynamics, but historical animosity and verification challenges sustain trader caution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$829,302結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel, the United States, and Iran, effective since April 8 following 40 days of airstrikes launched February 28, remains on "life support" amid stalled negotiations for broader de-escalation. Iranian military leaders stated on May 13 they are fully prepared for renewed conflict, while President Trump warned Tehran faces decimation without concessions on nuclear enrichment, missile limits, and proxy funding—demands echoed by Israeli analysts skeptical of progress. Direct bilateral diplomacy between Jerusalem and Tehran is absent, with no verified talks on a permanent peace deal; key barriers include sanctions, Strait of Hormuz access, and regional proxies like Hezbollah. Upcoming mediator sessions in Pakistan could shift dynamics, but historical animosity and verification challenges sustain trader caution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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