Heightened US-Iran hostilities and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed visible AIS transits through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily commodity vessel counts frequently falling to single digits in late September amid dark-ship routing and elevated war-risk premiums. Data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show preliminary weekly non-Iranian-linked movements clustering in the low-to-mid 20s to low 30s once verified dark passages are incorporated, supporting the narrow market spread between the 25-29 and 30-34 bins. Fluctuating tanker loadings from Gulf terminals, intermittent naval escorts, and ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait add further variability, while any near-term de-escalation or confirmed mine-clearance progress could lift volumes toward the upper end of that range.