The Federal Reserve's entrenched role as the independent U.S. central bank, established by statute and responsible for monetary policy, interest rates, and financial stability, creates formidable institutional and procedural barriers to abolition. No major legislation, executive proposals, or bipartisan momentum has advanced such a step, with both parties historically relying on the Fed's tools during economic cycles. Traders assign 98.5% probability to survival through 2026 because congressional majorities, Senate confirmation dynamics, and market reactions would need to align rapidly. Even in a new administration, statutory changes face filibuster thresholds and legal challenges. Late developments such as an acute financial crisis prompting radical reform or targeted congressional action could still shift odds, though these remain low-probability paths within the narrow timeframe.