icon for When will Trump leave China?

政治·特朗普-習近平峯會

When will Trump leave China?

May 15 100.0%

Before May 13 <1%

May 13 <1%

May 14 <1%

$1,517,348 交易量

$1,517,348 交易量

2026-05-20

Before May 13

$8,448 交易量

No

May 13

$8,390 交易量

No

May 14

$51,009 交易量

No

May 15

$110,236 交易量

Yes

May 16

$52,534 交易量

No

May 17

$12,104 交易量

No

May 18

$3,024 交易量

No

5月18日之後

$1,270,452 交易量

否

5月18日前未訪問

$1,152 交易量

否

May 15 100.0%

Before May 13 <1%

May 13 <1%

May 14 <1%

$1,517,348 交易量

$1,517,348 交易量

2026-05-20

Before May 13

$8,448 交易量

No

May 13

$8,390 交易量

No

May 14

$51,009 交易量

No

May 15

$110,236 交易量

Yes

May 16

$52,534 交易量

No

May 17

$12,104 交易量

No

May 18

$3,024 交易量

No

5月18日之後

$1,270,452 交易量

否

5月18日前未訪問

$1,152 交易量

否

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: No

無爭議

最終結果: No

This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins visits China before May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After May 18”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by May 18, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by May 18”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: No

無爭議

最終結果: No

警惕外部連結哦。

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"When will Trump leave China?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "May 15" at 100%, followed by "Before May 13" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "When will Trump leave China?" has generated $1.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on May 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "When will Trump leave China?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "When will Trump leave China?" is "May 15" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Before May 13" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "When will Trump leave China?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "When will Trump leave China?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.5 million traded on “When will Trump leave China?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "When will Trump leave China?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "May 15" in the "When will Trump leave China?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "May 15" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "When will Trump leave China?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "When will Trump leave China?" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "When will Trump leave China?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.