The @khamenei_ir account, now focused on archival statements from the martyred former Supreme Leader following his death in February 2026, has posted infrequently in recent weeks. Activity dropped sharply after early-May shares and remained quiet through mid-May, consistent with a broader pattern of low-volume output since the succession to Mojtaba Khamenei. Traders assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five posts during May 19–26 because no major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments have emerged to prompt increased statements in the current window. This aligns with historical base rates for the account outside periods of active escalation and reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing the limited triggers likely to appear before resolution.