Recent polling averages place the PP on roughly 30–32% of the vote ahead of the November 29 snap election, projecting 126–135 seats in the 350-seat Congress, with ranges reflecting the D’Hondt system’s sensitivity to small national and regional swings. The PSOE trails at 26–29%, while Vox has climbed to 18–19% and is on track to double its 2023 seat total. This distribution leaves the PP short of an absolute majority on its own but positions the combined PP-Vox bloc comfortably above the 176-seat threshold in nearly all simulations. The race for the PP’s precise seat band remains tight because most private pollsters show only a modest PP lead, a handful of surveys place the PSOE close or ahead, and final-week turnout, mobilization in key autonomous communities, and left-wing fragmentation could shift several dozen seats. The housing crisis that prompted the early vote and ongoing cost-of-living concerns continue to define campaign messaging, with limited time remaining for major reversals before polling day.