Tusk’s governing coalition retains a secure parliamentary majority in Poland’s Sejm, sufficient to block any constructive vote of no confidence before December 31. Recent clashes over the Constitutional Tribunal have prompted opposition proposals for such a motion and isolated coalition tensions, yet the government’s seat count has held steady and junior partners have confirmed continued support. Parliamentary elections are not scheduled until 2027, and no other constitutional mechanism allows swift removal of the prime minister. Traders therefore price near-certain continuity through year-end, though an unexpected coalition fracture or sudden resignation could still alter the outcome in the narrow remaining window.