Traders assign an 85.5% probability against a U.S. announcement of a new military base in Israel during 2026 because recent developments have centered on temporary deployments, expanded technology cooperation, and exploratory talks rather than formal basing agreements. U.S. forces have used Israeli facilities such as Ovda Airbase for rotational F-22 operations amid regional tensions, while the Pentagon has weighed relocating assets from Gulf states. Legislation advancing joint defense research and industrial integration through the FY2027 NDAA has passed committee stages without referencing sovereign bases. Israeli internal discussions on permanent hosting remain preliminary, and no administration statement or congressional authorization has advanced to an official announcement by mid-August. These factors sustain market consensus that structural and diplomatic barriers continue to outweigh short-term military coordination.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
14% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
14% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. Traders assign an 85.5% probability against a U.S. announcement of a new military base in Israel during 2026 because recent developments have centered on temporary deployments, expanded technology cooperation, and exploratory talks rather than formal basing agreements. U.S. forces have used Israeli facilities such as Ovda Airbase for rotational F-22 operations amid regional tensions, while the Pentagon has weighed relocating assets from Gulf states. Legislation advancing joint defense research and industrial integration through the FY2027 NDAA has passed committee stages without referencing sovereign bases. Israeli internal discussions on permanent hosting remain preliminary, and no administration statement or congressional authorization has advanced to an official announcement by mid-August. These factors sustain market consensus that structural and diplomatic barriers continue to outweigh short-term military coordination.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
市場開放時間： Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$484結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives. Traders assign an 85.5% probability against a U.S. announcement of a new military base in Israel during 2026 because recent developments have centered on temporary deployments, expanded technology cooperation, and exploratory talks rather than formal basing agreements. U.S. forces have used Israeli facilities such as Ovda Airbase for rotational F-22 operations amid regional tensions, while the Pentagon has weighed relocating assets from Gulf states. Legislation advancing joint defense research and industrial integration through the FY2027 NDAA has passed committee stages without referencing sovereign bases. Israeli internal discussions on permanent hosting remain preliminary, and no administration statement or congressional authorization has advanced to an official announcement by mid-August. These factors sustain market consensus that structural and diplomatic barriers continue to outweigh short-term military coordination.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, the United States military, or their authorized representatives, publicly and officially announces that the United States will maintain a military presence within the territory of Israel, beyond any presence which may exist at the time of creation of this market, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
A qualifying announcement must be a clear and declarative statement that the United States will station military personnel in Israel indefinitely, beyond any temporary presence that may exist for mission-specific purposes. For purposes of this market, Israel is defined to exclude territory in the West Bank and Gaza, but to include the Golan Heights and Shebaa Farms.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the decision to maintain a military presence is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from Donald Trump, the United States Government, the United States military, and their official representatives.
交易量
$484結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 85.5% probability against a U.S. announcement of a new military base in Israel during 2026 because recent developments have centered on temporary deployments, expanded technology cooperation, and exploratory talks rather than formal basing agreements. U.S. forces have used Israeli facilities such as Ovda Airbase for rotational F-22 operations amid regional tensions, while the Pentagon has weighed relocating assets from Gulf states. Legislation advancing joint defense research and industrial integration through the FY2027 NDAA has passed committee stages without referencing sovereign bases. Israeli internal discussions on permanent hosting remain preliminary, and no administration statement or congressional authorization has advanced to an official announcement by mid-August. These factors sustain market consensus that structural and diplomatic barriers continue to outweigh short-term military coordination.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions