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icon for 美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？
經濟艙·銀行

美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？

icon for 美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？
經濟艙·銀行

美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

是

51% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

51% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Elevated unrealized losses on commercial real estate loans and securities, compounded by higher-for-longer interest rates, remain the dominant driver behind the 65% market-implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end. Five institutions have already failed in 2026, while the FDIC’s problem bank list expanded to 52 lenders holding $66 billion in assets. Recent analyses show thousands of banks with loan portfolios marked well below book value, and rising delinquencies at several large players signal broader credit deterioration. Large-bank Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed resilience, yet smaller and mid-sized firms face acute pressure. Key near-term catalysts include third-quarter earnings releases and commercial real estate performance data that could accelerate or avert further resolutions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$2,309
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Elevated unrealized losses on commercial real estate loans and securities, compounded by higher-for-longer interest rates, remain the dominant driver behind the 65% market-implied probability of at least one additional U.S. bank failure by year-end. Five institutions have already failed in 2026, while the FDIC’s problem bank list expanded to 52 lenders holding $66 billion in assets. Recent analyses show thousands of banks with loan portfolios marked well below book value, and rising delinquencies at several large players signal broader credit deterioration. Large-bank Federal Reserve stress tests confirmed resilience, yet smaller and mid-sized firms face acute pressure. Key near-term catalysts include third-quarter earnings releases and commercial real estate performance data that could accelerate or avert further resolutions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
交易量
$2,309
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？" at 63%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？" is "美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國銀行在2026年12月31日前倒閉？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.