Ongoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, the National Cultural Fund grants, and the 2025 Ukrainian money convoy detention have intensified under the Magyar government, with raids on Fidesz servers and motions filed seeking Orbán’s arrest alongside associates. Yet no formal charges or detention orders target the former prime minister directly, and Hungary’s justice system plus constitutional protections for high officeholders create substantial procedural barriers. New asset-recovery mechanisms and planned EPPO accession expand scrutiny, but specialists emphasize that building cases against senior figures typically requires years rather than months. Traders therefore price the December 31 deadline as highly improbable, reflecting the gap between active inquiries and the evidentiary threshold for arrest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
9% 機率
$37,800 交易量
$37,800 交易量
2026-12-31
是
9% 機率
$37,800 交易量
$37,800 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, the National Cultural Fund grants, and the 2025 Ukrainian money convoy detention have intensified under the Magyar government, with raids on Fidesz servers and motions filed seeking Orbán’s arrest alongside associates. Yet no formal charges or detention orders target the former prime minister directly, and Hungary’s justice system plus constitutional protections for high officeholders create substantial procedural barriers. New asset-recovery mechanisms and planned EPPO accession expand scrutiny, but specialists emphasize that building cases against senior figures typically requires years rather than months. Traders therefore price the December 31 deadline as highly improbable, reflecting the gap between active inquiries and the evidentiary threshold for arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
交易量
$37,800結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, the National Cultural Fund grants, and the 2025 Ukrainian money convoy detention have intensified under the Magyar government, with raids on Fidesz servers and motions filed seeking Orbán’s arrest alongside associates. Yet no formal charges or detention orders target the former prime minister directly, and Hungary’s justice system plus constitutional protections for high officeholders create substantial procedural barriers. New asset-recovery mechanisms and planned EPPO accession expand scrutiny, but specialists emphasize that building cases against senior figures typically requires years rather than months. Traders therefore price the December 31 deadline as highly improbable, reflecting the gap between active inquiries and the evidentiary threshold for arrest.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$37,800結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETOngoing corruption probes into Orbán-era procurement, the National Cultural Fund grants, and the 2025 Ukrainian money convoy detention have intensified under the Magyar government, with raids on Fidesz servers and motions filed seeking Orbán’s arrest alongside associates. Yet no formal charges or detention orders target the former prime minister directly, and Hungary’s justice system plus constitutional protections for high officeholders create substantial procedural barriers. New asset-recovery mechanisms and planned EPPO accession expand scrutiny, but specialists emphasize that building cases against senior figures typically requires years rather than months. Traders therefore price the December 31 deadline as highly improbable, reflecting the gap between active inquiries and the evidentiary threshold for arrest.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions