Democratic incumbent Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his long tenure, substantial fundraising edge, and consistent polling leads over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Virginia's recent electoral patterns favoring Democrats in federal races and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, including Warner's unopposed Democratic primary and Mizusawa's limited statewide profile. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals or health events, or late-campaign developments in key voting blocs, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$13,802 交易量
$13,802 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
94%
共和黨
6%
$13,802 交易量
$13,802 交易量
2026-11-03
民主黨
$8,722 交易量
94%
共和黨
$5,081 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his long tenure, substantial fundraising edge, and consistent polling leads over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Virginia's recent electoral patterns favoring Democrats in federal races and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, including Warner's unopposed Democratic primary and Mizusawa's limited statewide profile. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals or health events, or late-campaign developments in key voting blocs, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$13,802結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic incumbent Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his long tenure, substantial fundraising edge, and consistent polling leads over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Virginia's recent electoral patterns favoring Democrats in federal races and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, including Warner's unopposed Democratic primary and Mizusawa's limited statewide profile. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals or health events, or late-campaign developments in key voting blocs, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$13,802結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Mark Warner holds a commanding position in the 2026 Virginia Senate race due to his long tenure, substantial fundraising edge, and consistent polling leads over Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, who secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting Virginia's recent electoral patterns favoring Democrats in federal races and the absence of major shifts in voter sentiment since primaries concluded. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these structural advantages, including Warner's unopposed Democratic primary and Mizusawa's limited statewide profile. Potential developments that could narrow the gap include a significant national political realignment, unexpected candidate withdrawals or health events, or late-campaign developments in key voting blocs, though no such factors have emerged in recent weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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