Traders assign a 98.7% probability against James Comey smiling in a mugshot, driven by standard federal booking protocols that require neutral expressions during processing of any arrest. This near-certain consensus stems from longstanding law enforcement practices across U.S. jurisdictions, where subjects face explicit instructions to avoid gestures or expressions, especially in cases involving former senior officials and potential charges. Historical precedents for comparable high-profile legal proceedings reinforce the outcome, as controlled arrest environments and institutional oversight limit individual discretion. While a deliberate deviation or procedural change could still shift results, such developments would require specific circumstances outside typical arrest timelines.