Recent U.S.-Iran tensions, including the February 2026 airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and elevated his son Mojtaba to the position in March, have shaped expectations around direct contact. President Trump has publicly called the succession a mistake and expressed doubt that Mojtaba can coexist peacefully with Washington, while separately stating that Iranian leaders seek talks and that he remains open depending on terms. A limited truce reached in April has not yet produced confirmed high-level dialogue. Traders are watching for any scheduled diplomatic channel, White House statements, or regional summits that could enable or block a conversation before the market resolution date.