Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have kept the race for second place tightly contested on arena.ai's style-controlled Text Arena leaderboard, where trader odds cluster between 8% and 18% for Meta, Amazon, Anthropic, xAI, and others. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads overall benchmarks, yet Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra demonstrate competitive instruction-following and consistency scores that matter under style control. Key swing factors include further benchmark refreshes, compute partnerships, and any late-November capability demonstrations before resolution. The narrow spread reflects how small edges in agentic tasks or multimodal integration can shift lab rankings quickly in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于亚马逊 24.6%
Meta 18%
OpenAI 12%
MiniMax 10%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
亚马逊
25%
Meta
18%
OpenAI
9%
MiniMax
10%
Anthropic
15%
DeepSeek
9%
腾讯
9%
字节跳动
8%
Z.ai
7%
Moonshot
7%
Mistral
7%
StepFun
7%
微软
7%
SpaceXAI
6%
小米
6%
美团
6%
英伟达
5%
谷歌
27%
Thinky
4%
阿里巴巴
13%
百度
7%
亚马逊 24.6%
Meta 18%
OpenAI 12%
MiniMax 10%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
亚马逊
$70 交易量
25%
Meta
$180 交易量
18%
OpenAI
$92 交易量
9%
MiniMax
$70 交易量
10%
Anthropic
$106 交易量
15%
DeepSeek
$180 交易量
9%
腾讯
$193 交易量
9%
字节跳动
$70 交易量
8%
Z.ai
$101 交易量
7%
Moonshot
$70 交易量
7%
Mistral
$70 交易量
7%
StepFun
$70 交易量
7%
微软
$70 交易量
7%
SpaceXAI
$70 交易量
6%
小米
$70 交易量
6%
美团
$70 交易量
6%
英伟达
$70 交易量
5%
谷歌
$103 交易量
27%
Thinky
$70 交易量
4%
阿里巴巴
$114 交易量
13%
百度
$74 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have kept the race for second place tightly contested on arena.ai's style-controlled Text Arena leaderboard, where trader odds cluster between 8% and 18% for Meta, Amazon, Anthropic, xAI, and others. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads overall benchmarks, yet Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra demonstrate competitive instruction-following and consistency scores that matter under style control. Key swing factors include further benchmark refreshes, compute partnerships, and any late-November capability demonstrations before resolution. The narrow spread reflects how small edges in agentic tasks or multimodal integration can shift lab rankings quickly in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
交易量
$1,989结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have kept the race for second place tightly contested on arena.ai's style-controlled Text Arena leaderboard, where trader odds cluster between 8% and 18% for Meta, Amazon, Anthropic, xAI, and others. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads overall benchmarks, yet Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra demonstrate competitive instruction-following and consistency scores that matter under style control. Key swing factors include further benchmark refreshes, compute partnerships, and any late-November capability demonstrations before resolution. The narrow spread reflects how small edges in agentic tasks or multimodal integration can shift lab rankings quickly in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$1,989结束日期
2026-12-01市场开放时间
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRecent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have kept the race for second place tightly contested on arena.ai's style-controlled Text Arena leaderboard, where trader odds cluster between 8% and 18% for Meta, Amazon, Anthropic, xAI, and others. Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 leads overall benchmarks, yet Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates and OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra demonstrate competitive instruction-following and consistency scores that matter under style control. Key swing factors include further benchmark refreshes, compute partnerships, and any late-November capability demonstrations before resolution. The narrow spread reflects how small edges in agentic tasks or multimodal integration can shift lab rankings quickly in this environment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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