With six months remaining until the 2026 midterm elections, traders assign the highest probability to outcomes outside the listed narrow margins for the national House popular vote, underscoring persistent uncertainty at this stage of the cycle. Recent generic ballot surveys, including Ipsos/Reuters and Economist/YouGov polls from early May, show Democrats holding a modest lead of three to six points, consistent with the historical tendency for the president's party to face headwinds. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered district lines, potentially affecting the translation of national vote share into seats. President Trump's approval ratings near 45 percent and ongoing primary contests within both parties add further variables, while Republican strengths on issues like border security continue to support competitive positioning. These factors keep the exact margin fluid ahead of November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于民主党 8-10% 16%
民主党 10-12% 13%
共和党 0-2% 10.2%
民主党 6-8% 10%
$34,848 交易量
$34,848 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党16%+
3%
民主党14-16%
4%
民主党 12-14%
4%
民主党 10-12%
13%
民主党 8-10%
16%
民主党 6-8%
10%
民主党4-6%
7%
民主党2-4%
4%
民主党 0-2%
5%
共和党 0-2%
10%
共和党领先2-4%
8%
共和党4-6%
2%
共和党 6%+
3%
民主党 8-10% 16%
民主党 10-12% 13%
共和党 0-2% 10.2%
民主党 6-8% 10%
$34,848 交易量
$34,848 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党16%+
$804 交易量
3%
民主党14-16%
$476 交易量
4%
民主党 12-14%
$462 交易量
4%
民主党 10-12%
$830 交易量
13%
民主党 8-10%
$1,555 交易量
16%
民主党 6-8%
$693 交易量
10%
民主党4-6%
$258 交易量
7%
民主党2-4%
$1,012 交易量
4%
民主党 0-2%
$889 交易量
5%
共和党 0-2%
$864 交易量
10%
共和党领先2-4%
$26,019 交易量
8%
共和党4-6%
$230 交易量
2%
共和党 6%+
$757 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With six months remaining until the 2026 midterm elections, traders assign the highest probability to outcomes outside the listed narrow margins for the national House popular vote, underscoring persistent uncertainty at this stage of the cycle. Recent generic ballot surveys, including Ipsos/Reuters and Economist/YouGov polls from early May, show Democrats holding a modest lead of three to six points, consistent with the historical tendency for the president's party to face headwinds. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered district lines, potentially affecting the translation of national vote share into seats. President Trump's approval ratings near 45 percent and ongoing primary contests within both parties add further variables, while Republican strengths on issues like border security continue to support competitive positioning. These factors keep the exact margin fluid ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
市场开放时间： Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$34,848结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.With six months remaining until the 2026 midterm elections, traders assign the highest probability to outcomes outside the listed narrow margins for the national House popular vote, underscoring persistent uncertainty at this stage of the cycle. Recent generic ballot surveys, including Ipsos/Reuters and Economist/YouGov polls from early May, show Democrats holding a modest lead of three to six points, consistent with the historical tendency for the president's party to face headwinds. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered district lines, potentially affecting the translation of national vote share into seats. President Trump's approval ratings near 45 percent and ongoing primary contests within both parties add further variables, while Republican strengths on issues like border security continue to support competitive positioning. These factors keep the exact margin fluid ahead of November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
交易量
$34,848结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With six months remaining until the 2026 midterm elections, traders assign the highest probability to outcomes outside the listed narrow margins for the national House popular vote, underscoring persistent uncertainty at this stage of the cycle. Recent generic ballot surveys, including Ipsos/Reuters and Economist/YouGov polls from early May, show Democrats holding a modest lead of three to six points, consistent with the historical tendency for the president's party to face headwinds. Redistricting developments in states such as Virginia, Tennessee, and Missouri have altered district lines, potentially affecting the translation of national vote share into seats. President Trump's approval ratings near 45 percent and ongoing primary contests within both parties add further variables, while Republican strengths on issues like border security continue to support competitive positioning. These factors keep the exact margin fluid ahead of November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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