Republican Jerry Carl defeated Democrat Clyde Jones in Alabama’s 1st Congressional District on November 3, 2026, with unofficial statewide results showing Carl at roughly 59 percent to Jones’s 41 percent. This produced an approximately 18-point margin that aligns with the district’s R+17 Partisan Voter Index and historical Republican performance. Trader consensus prices the 10-20 percent Republican margin bucket highest because early and county-level returns from Mobile, Baldwin, and other areas consistently pointed to that range, while stronger Democratic showings in urban pockets were offset by larger Republican advantages elsewhere. Provisional ballots and final certification remain outstanding but are unlikely to shift the outcome outside the leading bucket given the current spread.