Incumbent Juanma Moreno's Partido Popular holds a commanding lead in the Andalusia regional election, underpinned by consistent recent polling from firms such as SocioMétrica, CIS, and Sigma Dos projecting 42-45% support and 54-58 seats in the 109-seat parliament. This positioning stems from strong voter approval of the PP's regional economic management since its 2022 absolute majority victory, combined with a fragmented opposition where PSOE-A remains mired near historic lows around 20-26% and minor parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía split the remainder. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these trends and the absence of major late-campaign disruptions. While an absolute majority threshold of 55 seats appears within reach, scenarios such as unexpectedly high turnout favoring challengers, a sudden scandal, or coordinated opposition mobilization on election day could still narrow margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于PP 98.0%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$162,505 交易量
$162,505 交易量
2026-05-17
PP
98%
PSOE-A
1%
VOX
<1%
PA
<1%
AA
<1%
PP 98.0%
PSOE-A <1%
PA <1%
VOX <1%
$162,505 交易量
$162,505 交易量
2026-05-17
PP
$56,323 交易量
98%
PSOE-A
$59,810 交易量
1%
VOX
$36,201 交易量
<1%
PA
$5,745 交易量
<1%
AA
$4,426 交易量
<1%
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Juanma Moreno's Partido Popular holds a commanding lead in the Andalusia regional election, underpinned by consistent recent polling from firms such as SocioMétrica, CIS, and Sigma Dos projecting 42-45% support and 54-58 seats in the 109-seat parliament. This positioning stems from strong voter approval of the PP's regional economic management since its 2022 absolute majority victory, combined with a fragmented opposition where PSOE-A remains mired near historic lows around 20-26% and minor parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía split the remainder. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these trends and the absence of major late-campaign disruptions. While an absolute majority threshold of 55 seats appears within reach, scenarios such as unexpectedly high turnout favoring challengers, a sudden scandal, or coordinated opposition mobilization on election day could still narrow margins.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
交易量
$162,505结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.Incumbent Juanma Moreno's Partido Popular holds a commanding lead in the Andalusia regional election, underpinned by consistent recent polling from firms such as SocioMétrica, CIS, and Sigma Dos projecting 42-45% support and 54-58 seats in the 109-seat parliament. This positioning stems from strong voter approval of the PP's regional economic management since its 2022 absolute majority victory, combined with a fragmented opposition where PSOE-A remains mired near historic lows around 20-26% and minor parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía split the remainder. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these trends and the absence of major late-campaign disruptions. While an absolute majority threshold of 55 seats appears within reach, scenarios such as unexpectedly high turnout favoring challengers, a sudden scandal, or coordinated opposition mobilization on election day could still narrow margins.
Elections for the autonomous community of Andalusia’s unicameral parliament are scheduled for May 17, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
This market will resolve according to the political party/coalition that wins the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the listed party or coalition.
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Spanish Junta Electoral Central (JEC) (https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/inicio).
Note: If a listed coalition splits prior to this election and does not contest this election as a unified coalition, the corresponding market will represent the party formerly in that coalition that holds the greatest number of seats in the Parliament of Andalusia at the time of the split.
交易量
$162,505结束日期
2026-05-17市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Juanma Moreno's Partido Popular holds a commanding lead in the Andalusia regional election, underpinned by consistent recent polling from firms such as SocioMétrica, CIS, and Sigma Dos projecting 42-45% support and 54-58 seats in the 109-seat parliament. This positioning stems from strong voter approval of the PP's regional economic management since its 2022 absolute majority victory, combined with a fragmented opposition where PSOE-A remains mired near historic lows around 20-26% and minor parties including Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía split the remainder. The implied probability in trader consensus aligns with these trends and the absence of major late-campaign disruptions. While an absolute majority threshold of 55 seats appears within reach, scenarios such as unexpectedly high turnout favoring challengers, a sudden scandal, or coordinated opposition mobilization on election day could still narrow margins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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