Greg Stanton (D) secured a decisive victory in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, defeating Republican Zuhdi Jasser by approximately 27 points (62.3% to 35.2%) in a race rated Solid Democratic by multiple forecasters. The district’s suburban Maricopa County footprint, including Tempe, Chandler, and parts of Mesa, has shown consistent Democratic preference in recent cycles, with presidential margins ranging from D+6.6 in 2024 to D+10.3 in 2020. Stanton’s primary win over a progressive challenger and superior fundraising reinforced his position as incumbent. Trader consensus on a 25-30 point Democratic margin reflects the finalized unofficial tallies and the low likelihood of meaningful shifts during certification. Late-breaking disputes or recounts remain theoretically possible but face steep barriers given the scale of the margin.