State Sen. Scott Wiener’s 40.7% finish in the June 2026 top-two primary for California’s 11th congressional district, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan’s 29.7%, has anchored trader consensus around his 63% implied probability heading into the November 3 general election. Wiener drew support across diverse San Francisco precincts and benefited from substantial fundraising and independent expenditures focused on housing production, while Chan secured Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and a narrower base. With no Republican advancing, the contest remains a Democratic matchup emphasizing differing approaches to housing, tech policy, and local priorities. An October 1 debate and any late shifts in turnout or endorsements could still adjust positioning before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,738 交易量
$15,738 交易量
2026-11-03
斯科特·维纳
63%
康妮·陈
37%
$15,738 交易量
$15,738 交易量
2026-11-03
斯科特·维纳
$4,089 交易量
63%
康妮·陈
$11,649 交易量
37%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).State Sen. Scott Wiener’s 40.7% finish in the June 2026 top-two primary for California’s 11th congressional district, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan’s 29.7%, has anchored trader consensus around his 63% implied probability heading into the November 3 general election. Wiener drew support across diverse San Francisco precincts and benefited from substantial fundraising and independent expenditures focused on housing production, while Chan secured Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and a narrower base. With no Republican advancing, the contest remains a Democratic matchup emphasizing differing approaches to housing, tech policy, and local priorities. An October 1 debate and any late shifts in turnout or endorsements could still adjust positioning before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ET
交易量
$15,738结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).State Sen. Scott Wiener’s 40.7% finish in the June 2026 top-two primary for California’s 11th congressional district, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan’s 29.7%, has anchored trader consensus around his 63% implied probability heading into the November 3 general election. Wiener drew support across diverse San Francisco precincts and benefited from substantial fundraising and independent expenditures focused on housing production, while Chan secured Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and a narrower base. With no Republican advancing, the contest remains a Democratic matchup emphasizing differing approaches to housing, tech policy, and local priorities. An October 1 debate and any late shifts in turnout or endorsements could still adjust positioning before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,738结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 10:00 PM ETState Sen. Scott Wiener’s 40.7% finish in the June 2026 top-two primary for California’s 11th congressional district, ahead of Supervisor Connie Chan’s 29.7%, has anchored trader consensus around his 63% implied probability heading into the November 3 general election. Wiener drew support across diverse San Francisco precincts and benefited from substantial fundraising and independent expenditures focused on housing production, while Chan secured Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement and a narrower base. With no Republican advancing, the contest remains a Democratic matchup emphasizing differing approaches to housing, tech policy, and local priorities. An October 1 debate and any late shifts in turnout or endorsements could still adjust positioning before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题