Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in Obernolte's 2024 general election win of 60%, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising edge. While the race remains formally open until November 3, significant shifts would require unusual developments such as a major scandal or sharp national political realignment to alter the current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$60,350 交易量
$60,350 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$60,350 交易量
$60,350 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$28,188 交易量
93%
民主党
$32,161 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in Obernolte's 2024 general election win of 60%, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising edge. While the race remains formally open until November 3, significant shifts would require unusual developments such as a major scandal or sharp national political realignment to alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$60,350结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in Obernolte's 2024 general election win of 60%, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising edge. While the race remains formally open until November 3, significant shifts would require unusual developments such as a major scandal or sharp national political realignment to alter the current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$60,350结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETIncumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57% of the vote against Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21%. The district's established Republican tilt, reflected in Obernolte's 2024 general election win of 60%, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Multiple forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election. Obernolte maintains a substantial fundraising edge. While the race remains formally open until November 3, significant shifts would require unusual developments such as a major scandal or sharp national political realignment to alter the current positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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