Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured advancement from California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote against a fragmented Democratic field, where leading challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge received about 21 percent. The district's established Republican lean, reinforced by Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there that cycle, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent Republican probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November general. Potential shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$60,350 交易量
$60,350 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
93%
民主党
6%
$60,350 交易量
$60,350 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$28,188 交易量
93%
民主党
$32,161 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured advancement from California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote against a fragmented Democratic field, where leading challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge received about 21 percent. The district's established Republican lean, reinforced by Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there that cycle, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent Republican probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November general. Potential shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$60,350结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured advancement from California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote against a fragmented Democratic field, where leading challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge received about 21 percent. The district's established Republican lean, reinforced by Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there that cycle, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent Republican probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November general. Potential shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$60,350结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETIncumbent Republican Jay Obernolte secured advancement from California's June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 57 percent of the vote against a fragmented Democratic field, where leading challenger Tessa Lynn Hodge received about 21 percent. The district's established Republican lean, reinforced by Obernolte's 60 percent margin in 2024 and Donald Trump's double-digit edge there that cycle, underpins the current trader consensus reflected in the 93 percent Republican probability. Forecasters across outlets rate the race as solid or safe Republican ahead of the November general. Potential shifts could arise from major late-cycle developments such as unexpected scandals, health issues affecting the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout mobilization in the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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