**Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI have stabilized LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo scores in the 1500–1531 range as of mid-August 2026.** Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead with modest edges over GPT-5.6 and Grok-4.6, driven by iterative refinements in reasoning, agentic capabilities, and human preference voting rather than large capability jumps. Progress has slowed since early-2026 leaps, with gains now typically single-digit and tied to increased voting volume plus targeted fine-tunes. Major labs continue shipping updates through year-end, though product timelines and benchmark thresholds remain uncertain. Traders monitor upcoming developer conferences, earnings calls, and any new “thinking” or multimodal variants that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$142,125 交易量
2026-12-31
↑ 1520
61%
↑ 1530
29%
↑ 1540
17%
↑ 1550
12%
↑ 1600
10%
↑ 1650
8%
↑ 1700
3%
$142,125 交易量
↑ 1520
$7,214 交易量
61%
↑ 1530
$7,374 交易量
29%
↑ 1540
$1,337 交易量
17%
↑ 1550
$48,924 交易量
12%
↑ 1600
$23,009 交易量
10%
↑ 1650
$8,600 交易量
8%
↑ 1700
$9,009 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI have stabilized LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo scores in the 1500–1531 range as of mid-August 2026.** Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead with modest edges over GPT-5.6 and Grok-4.6, driven by iterative refinements in reasoning, agentic capabilities, and human preference voting rather than large capability jumps. Progress has slowed since early-2026 leaps, with gains now typically single-digit and tied to increased voting volume plus targeted fine-tunes. Major labs continue shipping updates through year-end, though product timelines and benchmark thresholds remain uncertain. Traders monitor upcoming developer conferences, earnings calls, and any new “thinking” or multimodal variants that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
交易量
$142,125结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".**Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI have stabilized LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo scores in the 1500–1531 range as of mid-August 2026.** Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead with modest edges over GPT-5.6 and Grok-4.6, driven by iterative refinements in reasoning, agentic capabilities, and human preference voting rather than large capability jumps. Progress has slowed since early-2026 leaps, with gains now typically single-digit and tied to increased voting volume plus targeted fine-tunes. Major labs continue shipping updates through year-end, though product timelines and benchmark thresholds remain uncertain. Traders monitor upcoming developer conferences, earnings calls, and any new “thinking” or multimodal variants that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$142,125结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent frontier model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI have stabilized LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo scores in the 1500–1531 range as of mid-August 2026.** Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead with modest edges over GPT-5.6 and Grok-4.6, driven by iterative refinements in reasoning, agentic capabilities, and human preference voting rather than large capability jumps. Progress has slowed since early-2026 leaps, with gains now typically single-digit and tied to increased voting volume plus targeted fine-tunes. Major labs continue shipping updates through year-end, though product timelines and benchmark thresholds remain uncertain. Traders monitor upcoming developer conferences, earnings calls, and any new “thinking” or multimodal variants that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题