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icon for 12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?

12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?

icon for 12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?

12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?

$142,284 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$142,284 交易量

Polymarket

↑ 1520

$7,214 交易量

61%

↑ 1530

$7,505 交易量

27%

↑ 1540

$1,337 交易量

17%

↑ 1550

$48,924 交易量

12%

↑ 1600

$23,009 交易量

10%

↑ 1650

$8,600 交易量

8%

↑ 1700

$9,036 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid progress in frontier large language models continues to drive trader sentiment on Arena Score thresholds, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently topping LMArena leaderboards near 1510–1525 ELO as of mid-August 2026. Multiple releases this summer—including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google Gemini updates—have delivered incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, sustaining the competitive race. Labs are iterating on agentic capabilities and larger context windows, though exact resolution hinges on whether any model crosses the market’s specific ELO target before year-end. Expect further announcements through fall developer conferences and potential surprise drops that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$142,284
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Rapid progress in frontier large language models continues to drive trader sentiment on Arena Score thresholds, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 currently topping LMArena leaderboards near 1510–1525 ELO as of mid-August 2026. Multiple releases this summer—including OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google Gemini updates—have delivered incremental gains in reasoning, coding, and multimodal benchmarks, sustaining the competitive race. Labs are iterating on agentic capabilities and larger context windows, though exact resolution hinges on whether any model crosses the market’s specific ELO target before year-end. Expect further announcements through fall developer conferences and potential surprise drops that could shift the leaderboard before December 31.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$142,284
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"↑ 1500",概率为 100%,其次是"↑ 1510",概率为 100%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?"已产生 $142.3K 的总交易量(自Jan 2, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?"的当前领先者是"↑ 1500",概率为 100%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"↑ 1510",概率为 100%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"12月31日前是否会有AI模型达到___竞技场总分?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。