**Persistent gray-zone maritime confrontations in the South China Sea have not crossed into armed military conflict, underpinning the 73% trader consensus against a China-Philippines clash before 2027.** Recent incidents, including the September 18, 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal between a China Coast Guard vessel and a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries boat, and earlier July encounters involving water cannons and minor injuries near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals, remain limited to coast guard and fisheries operations rather than naval combat. Both governments continue diplomatic exchanges, including foreign minister meetings and calls to avoid miscalculation, while the Philippines strengthens alliances with the United States and partners through joint exercises and support for the 2016 arbitral award. These patterns of calibrated pressure, mutual restraint, and external deterrence have kept escalation risks contained despite heightened vessel activity and competing claims.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
27% 概率
$481,446 交易量
$481,446 交易量
2026-12-31
是
27% 概率
$481,446 交易量
$481,446 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Persistent gray-zone maritime confrontations in the South China Sea have not crossed into armed military conflict, underpinning the 73% trader consensus against a China-Philippines clash before 2027.**
Recent incidents, including the September 18, 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal between a China Coast Guard vessel and a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries boat, and earlier July encounters involving water cannons and minor injuries near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals, remain limited to coast guard and fisheries operations rather than naval combat. Both governments continue diplomatic exchanges, including foreign minister meetings and calls to avoid miscalculation, while the Philippines strengthens alliances with the United States and partners through joint exercises and support for the 2016 arbitral award. These patterns of calibrated pressure, mutual restraint, and external deterrence have kept escalation risks contained despite heightened vessel activity and competing claims.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$481,446结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Persistent gray-zone maritime confrontations in the South China Sea have not crossed into armed military conflict, underpinning the 73% trader consensus against a China-Philippines clash before 2027.**
Recent incidents, including the September 18, 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal between a China Coast Guard vessel and a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries boat, and earlier July encounters involving water cannons and minor injuries near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals, remain limited to coast guard and fisheries operations rather than naval combat. Both governments continue diplomatic exchanges, including foreign minister meetings and calls to avoid miscalculation, while the Philippines strengthens alliances with the United States and partners through joint exercises and support for the 2016 arbitral award. These patterns of calibrated pressure, mutual restraint, and external deterrence have kept escalation risks contained despite heightened vessel activity and competing claims.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$481,446结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET**Persistent gray-zone maritime confrontations in the South China Sea have not crossed into armed military conflict, underpinning the 73% trader consensus against a China-Philippines clash before 2027.** Recent incidents, including the September 18, 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal between a China Coast Guard vessel and a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries boat, and earlier July encounters involving water cannons and minor injuries near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals, remain limited to coast guard and fisheries operations rather than naval combat. Both governments continue diplomatic exchanges, including foreign minister meetings and calls to avoid miscalculation, while the Philippines strengthens alliances with the United States and partners through joint exercises and support for the 2016 arbitral award. These patterns of calibrated pressure, mutual restraint, and external deterrence have kept escalation risks contained despite heightened vessel activity and competing claims.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题