Ongoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including the September 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal and earlier July incidents involving water cannons and minor physical clashes, have not escalated into direct military engagements between armed forces. Philippine President Marcos has signaled interest in resetting bilateral ties, with progress reported on joint energy talks and a provisional resupply understanding at Second Thomas Shoal, while both sides maintain diplomatic channels to manage disputes. Strengthened U.S.-Philippines defense cooperation and regional deterrence further reduce the likelihood of open conflict before 2027, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% probability for no clash.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
29% 概率
$481,965 交易量
$481,965 交易量
2026-12-31
是
29% 概率
$481,965 交易量
$481,965 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including the September 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal and earlier July incidents involving water cannons and minor physical clashes, have not escalated into direct military engagements between armed forces. Philippine President Marcos has signaled interest in resetting bilateral ties, with progress reported on joint energy talks and a provisional resupply understanding at Second Thomas Shoal, while both sides maintain diplomatic channels to manage disputes. Strengthened U.S.-Philippines defense cooperation and regional deterrence further reduce the likelihood of open conflict before 2027, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% probability for no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$481,965结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including the September 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal and earlier July incidents involving water cannons and minor physical clashes, have not escalated into direct military engagements between armed forces. Philippine President Marcos has signaled interest in resetting bilateral ties, with progress reported on joint energy talks and a provisional resupply understanding at Second Thomas Shoal, while both sides maintain diplomatic channels to manage disputes. Strengthened U.S.-Philippines defense cooperation and regional deterrence further reduce the likelihood of open conflict before 2027, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% probability for no clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$481,965结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETOngoing gray-zone confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels, including the September 2026 collision near Sabina Shoal and earlier July incidents involving water cannons and minor physical clashes, have not escalated into direct military engagements between armed forces. Philippine President Marcos has signaled interest in resetting bilateral ties, with progress reported on joint energy talks and a provisional resupply understanding at Second Thomas Shoal, while both sides maintain diplomatic channels to manage disputes. Strengthened U.S.-Philippines defense cooperation and regional deterrence further reduce the likelihood of open conflict before 2027, consistent with trader consensus reflected in the 71.5% probability for no clash.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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