Recent September data showing Core PCE reaccelerating to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.0%—alongside a hotter-than-expected CPI print—has anchored trader expectations for October around 3.2-3.3%, where market-implied odds now cluster at 36% and 28.5%. Persistent services inflation, including shelter and supercore components, combined with elevated energy pass-through earlier in the period, supports this positioning despite some cooling in goods prices. October CPI due November 10 will provide the key input ahead of the BEA release, with consensus forecasts centering near 3.1-3.2% amid mixed signals from labor costs and housing trends.