Databricks' private valuation has climbed sharply to $190 billion following its August 2026 $5 billion strategic round at a 27x multiple on its $7 billion annualized revenue run rate, which grew over 80% year over year amid AI platform momentum. CEO commentary ruling out a 2026 listing due to a crowded calendar with SpaceX and Anthropic has shifted focus to 2027 or later, with no S-1 filed and secondary marks near $192-213 billion. This timeline uncertainty, combined with analyst debates over sustainable multiples versus peers like Snowflake and potential dilution or market conditions at debut, drives the closely matched Polymarket probabilities across $150-450 billion+ closing market cap bins. The 20.8% chance of no IPO by end-2027 reflects these execution and macro risks.