Stripe's elevated $159 billion valuation following its February 2026 tender offer underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability it will outpace Databricks by year-end, reflecting 74% growth from prior levels amid $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and continued fintech momentum. Databricks' most recent $134 billion post-money mark from its February equity and debt raise, backed by a $5.4 billion annualized revenue run rate expanding over 65% year-over-year, has narrowed the gap but trails in absolute terms and recent secondary pricing. Traders are pricing in Stripe's scalable payments infrastructure and institutional liquidity events as durable advantages through December 31, while monitoring potential IPO timelines or further funding rounds that could recalibrate both firms' implied market caps.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Databricks
最新
最新
2027-01-01
Databricks
最新
最新
2027-01-01
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' valuation is equal to Stripe's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Stripe's elevated $159 billion valuation following its February 2026 tender offer underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability it will outpace Databricks by year-end, reflecting 74% growth from prior levels amid $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and continued fintech momentum. Databricks' most recent $134 billion post-money mark from its February equity and debt raise, backed by a $5.4 billion annualized revenue run rate expanding over 65% year-over-year, has narrowed the gap but trails in absolute terms and recent secondary pricing. Traders are pricing in Stripe's scalable payments infrastructure and institutional liquidity events as durable advantages through December 31, while monitoring potential IPO timelines or further funding rounds that could recalibrate both firms' implied market caps.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' valuation is equal to Stripe's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' valuation is equal to Stripe's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
市场开放时间： May 19, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 19, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' valuation is equal to Stripe's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.Stripe's elevated $159 billion valuation following its February 2026 tender offer underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability it will outpace Databricks by year-end, reflecting 74% growth from prior levels amid $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and continued fintech momentum. Databricks' most recent $134 billion post-money mark from its February equity and debt raise, backed by a $5.4 billion annualized revenue run rate expanding over 65% year-over-year, has narrowed the gap but trails in absolute terms and recent secondary pricing. Traders are pricing in Stripe's scalable payments infrastructure and institutional liquidity events as durable advantages through December 31, while monitoring potential IPO timelines or further funding rounds that could recalibrate both firms' implied market caps.
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' valuation is equal to Stripe's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://test8298192.pages.dev/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If Databricks' valuation is equal to Stripe's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
交易量
$0结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 19, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Stripe's elevated $159 billion valuation following its February 2026 tender offer underpins the 77.5% market-implied probability it will outpace Databricks by year-end, reflecting 74% growth from prior levels amid $1.9 trillion in 2025 payment volume and continued fintech momentum. Databricks' most recent $134 billion post-money mark from its February equity and debt raise, backed by a $5.4 billion annualized revenue run rate expanding over 65% year-over-year, has narrowed the gap but trails in absolute terms and recent secondary pricing. Traders are pricing in Stripe's scalable payments infrastructure and institutional liquidity events as durable advantages through December 31, while monitoring potential IPO timelines or further funding rounds that could recalibrate both firms' implied market caps.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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