Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects a 95.1% implied probability for "No," driven by midway 2026 progress showing none of the three required milestones on track: Elon Musk's net worth stalled around $800 billion per Bloomberg Billionaires Index amid Tesla's electric vehicle sales slowdown and delays in Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and robotaxi deployments; no announcements of a 15th child since early 2025; and SpaceX's Starship program achieving fewer than five launches past 62-mile altitude due to FAA regulatory hurdles, with Flight Test 12 delayed to late May. Historical execution slips across Musk's ventures reinforce skepticism, though realistic shifts like Tesla robotaxi regulatory approval, a Starship launch cadence surge, or surprise family news could narrow the gap in the remaining seven months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$10,235 交易量
$10,235 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$10,235 交易量
$10,235 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects a 95.1% implied probability for "No," driven by midway 2026 progress showing none of the three required milestones on track: Elon Musk's net worth stalled around $800 billion per Bloomberg Billionaires Index amid Tesla's electric vehicle sales slowdown and delays in Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and robotaxi deployments; no announcements of a 15th child since early 2025; and SpaceX's Starship program achieving fewer than five launches past 62-mile altitude due to FAA regulatory hurdles, with Flight Test 12 delayed to late May. Historical execution slips across Musk's ventures reinforce skepticism, though realistic shifts like Tesla robotaxi regulatory approval, a Starship launch cadence surge, or surprise family news could narrow the gap in the remaining seven months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$10,235结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects a 95.1% implied probability for "No," driven by midway 2026 progress showing none of the three required milestones on track: Elon Musk's net worth stalled around $800 billion per Bloomberg Billionaires Index amid Tesla's electric vehicle sales slowdown and delays in Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and robotaxi deployments; no announcements of a 15th child since early 2025; and SpaceX's Starship program achieving fewer than five launches past 62-mile altitude due to FAA regulatory hurdles, with Flight Test 12 delayed to late May. Historical execution slips across Musk's ventures reinforce skepticism, though realistic shifts like Tesla robotaxi regulatory approval, a Starship launch cadence surge, or surprise family news could narrow the gap in the remaining seven months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby
- 9+ SpaceX Starship launches reach space
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Elon+Bull+Run+Parlay.pdf
交易量
$10,235结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Elon Bull Run Parlay reflects a 95.1% implied probability for "No," driven by midway 2026 progress showing none of the three required milestones on track: Elon Musk's net worth stalled around $800 billion per Bloomberg Billionaires Index amid Tesla's electric vehicle sales slowdown and delays in Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and robotaxi deployments; no announcements of a 15th child since early 2025; and SpaceX's Starship program achieving fewer than five launches past 62-mile altitude due to FAA regulatory hurdles, with Flight Test 12 delayed to late May. Historical execution slips across Musk's ventures reinforce skepticism, though realistic shifts like Tesla robotaxi regulatory approval, a Starship launch cadence surge, or surprise family news could narrow the gap in the remaining seven months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题