Incumbent Republican Rick Allen, who secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the May 2026 primary, faces Democrat Ceretta Smith in Georgia's 12th congressional district on November 3. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no competitive polling shifts, third-party candidates, or late developments reported that would fragment the vote, traders assign a 94.5% probability that one nominee exceeds 50% on election night. Georgia's majority requirement for avoiding a runoff makes this the dominant factor shaping the current consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
95% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
是
95% 概率
最新
最新
2026-11-03
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.Incumbent Republican Rick Allen, who secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the May 2026 primary, faces Democrat Ceretta Smith in Georgia's 12th congressional district on November 3. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no competitive polling shifts, third-party candidates, or late developments reported that would fragment the vote, traders assign a 94.5% probability that one nominee exceeds 50% on election night. Georgia's majority requirement for avoiding a runoff makes this the dominant factor shaping the current consensus.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
交易量
$298结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.Incumbent Republican Rick Allen, who secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the May 2026 primary, faces Democrat Ceretta Smith in Georgia's 12th congressional district on November 3. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no competitive polling shifts, third-party candidates, or late developments reported that would fragment the vote, traders assign a 94.5% probability that one nominee exceeds 50% on election night. Georgia's majority requirement for avoiding a runoff makes this the dominant factor shaping the current consensus.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-12 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-12 House election.
交易量
$298结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 5:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Republican Rick Allen, who secured his party's nomination with over 80% in the May 2026 primary, faces Democrat Ceretta Smith in Georgia's 12th congressional district on November 3. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7 and has consistently delivered double-digit Republican margins in recent cycles. With no competitive polling shifts, third-party candidates, or late developments reported that would fragment the vote, traders assign a 94.5% probability that one nominee exceeds 50% on election night. Georgia's majority requirement for avoiding a runoff makes this the dominant factor shaping the current consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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