Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered on southeast Atlanta suburbs, where incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Jim Duffie in the November general election. Historical results show Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, supported by district demographics and Johnson's long incumbency. Current trader pricing across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects this baseline while assigning meaningful weight to narrower outcomes, consistent with the seat's Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Limited campaign activity or polling since the primary has kept movement minimal, with no major candidate announcements, endorsements, or national events shifting local dynamics in the past month. Factors that could widen separation include sustained high Democratic turnout or Republican underperformance in the Atlanta metro area, while unexpected national headwinds or candidate-specific issues might compress the margin toward the lower buckets priced near 37%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Democrat 55-60% 37%
Democrat 45-50% 37%
民主党 65-70% 37%
Democrat 50-55% 37%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党70%+
36%
民主党 65-70%
37%
Democrat 60-65%
36%
Democrat 55-60%
37%
Democrat 50-55%
37%
Democrat 45-50%
37%
Democrat 40-45%
36%
民主党30-40%
36%
Democrat 0-30%
36%
Republican Wins
36%
Democrat 55-60% 37%
Democrat 45-50% 37%
民主党 65-70% 37%
Democrat 50-55% 37%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党70%+
$0 交易量
36%
民主党 65-70%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 60-65%
$0 交易量
36%
Democrat 55-60%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 50-55%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 45-50%
$0 交易量
37%
Democrat 40-45%
$0 交易量
36%
民主党30-40%
$0 交易量
36%
Democrat 0-30%
$0 交易量
36%
Republican Wins
$0 交易量
36%
The 2026 GA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered on southeast Atlanta suburbs, where incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Jim Duffie in the November general election. Historical results show Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, supported by district demographics and Johnson's long incumbency. Current trader pricing across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects this baseline while assigning meaningful weight to narrower outcomes, consistent with the seat's Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Limited campaign activity or polling since the primary has kept movement minimal, with no major candidate announcements, endorsements, or national events shifting local dynamics in the past month. Factors that could widen separation include sustained high Democratic turnout or Republican underperformance in the Atlanta metro area, while unexpected national headwinds or candidate-specific issues might compress the margin toward the lower buckets priced near 37%.
The 2026 GA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 GA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered on southeast Atlanta suburbs, where incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Jim Duffie in the November general election. Historical results show Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, supported by district demographics and Johnson's long incumbency. Current trader pricing across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects this baseline while assigning meaningful weight to narrower outcomes, consistent with the seat's Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Limited campaign activity or polling since the primary has kept movement minimal, with no major candidate announcements, endorsements, or national events shifting local dynamics in the past month. Factors that could widen separation include sustained high Democratic turnout or Republican underperformance in the Atlanta metro area, while unexpected national headwinds or candidate-specific issues might compress the margin toward the lower buckets priced near 37%.
The 2026 GA-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 GA-04 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Georgia's 4th congressional district remains a heavily Democratic stronghold centered on southeast Atlanta suburbs, where incumbent Hank Johnson secured the Democratic nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Republican nominee Jim Duffie in the November general election. Historical results show Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles, supported by district demographics and Johnson's long incumbency. Current trader pricing across margin buckets and win probabilities reflects this baseline while assigning meaningful weight to narrower outcomes, consistent with the seat's Solid/Safe Democratic ratings from multiple forecasters. Limited campaign activity or polling since the primary has kept movement minimal, with no major candidate announcements, endorsements, or national events shifting local dynamics in the past month. Factors that could widen separation include sustained high Democratic turnout or Republican underperformance in the Atlanta metro area, while unexpected national headwinds or candidate-specific issues might compress the margin toward the lower buckets priced near 37%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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