Recent polling from Pew Research and other surveys shows Republican candidates receiving 7-19% support among Black voters in the 2026 midterms, with figures often clustering near 14-18% in mid-cycle data. This positioning reflects sustained but limited shifts from 2024 levels, when the GOP captured roughly 15% nationally, alongside reduced party outreach efforts and messaging focused on tangible economic gains. Rising Black unemployment and limited engagement from congressional committees have tempered further movement, keeping implied probabilities concentrated in the 8-11% range as the dominant trader consensus. Upcoming election results will determine final resolution.