Official NOAA and National Weather Service station readings for Houston on October 13 confirmed a daily maximum of 92–93°F, anchoring the market’s 100% implied probability on that bin. Late-October warmth in southeast Texas often stems from southerly flow and clear conditions that allow daytime heating to exceed the seasonal average of roughly 85°F. Forecast model runs from the preceding 48 hours showed tight agreement on this range, with post-event verification leaving little room for revision. While measurement variations across official sites or minor rounding differences could theoretically shift the final value, such scenarios remain statistically negligible given the consistent observational record.