Recent GFS and regional model runs show mild southerly flow advecting warmer air into Moscow ahead of October 9, supporting daytime highs near 16–18 °C—well above the 10.6 °C climatological average. Trader consensus clusters on these values because southerly winds and modest pressure gradients favor above-normal temperatures, while scattered showers and increasing cloud cover introduce uncertainty about whether peaks reach the upper end of that range or stay closer to 16 °C. Model spread in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing keeps lower and higher outcomes viable, though probabilities drop sharply outside 15–19 °C. Fresh model cycles and official Roshydromet guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine the exact maximum.