Recent Middle East tensions and surging oil prices have lifted 5-year Treasury yields to approximately 4.54% as of early September 2026, up sharply from earlier in the year amid persistent inflation concerns. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revisions to the 2026 funds-rate path have reinforced expectations for potential rate hikes, with futures markets pricing roughly 30-65 basis points of tightening by year-end depending on incoming data. Resilient growth, firm labor markets, and elevated breakeven inflation measures continue to support higher term premia, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and payroll releases represent key near-term catalysts that could extend the recent yield climb.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-12-30
5.25%
50%
5.10%
50%
5.00%
50%
4.95%
50%
4.90%
50%
4.85%
50%
4.80%
50%
4.75%
50%
4.70%
50%
$0.00 交易量
5.25%
$0 交易量
50%
5.10%
$0 交易量
50%
5.00%
$0 交易量
50%
4.95%
$0 交易量
50%
4.90%
$0 交易量
50%
4.85%
$0 交易量
50%
4.80%
$0 交易量
50%
4.75%
$0 交易量
50%
4.70%
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Middle East tensions and surging oil prices have lifted 5-year Treasury yields to approximately 4.54% as of early September 2026, up sharply from earlier in the year amid persistent inflation concerns. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revisions to the 2026 funds-rate path have reinforced expectations for potential rate hikes, with futures markets pricing roughly 30-65 basis points of tightening by year-end depending on incoming data. Resilient growth, firm labor markets, and elevated breakeven inflation measures continue to support higher term premia, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and payroll releases represent key near-term catalysts that could extend the recent yield climb.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent Middle East tensions and surging oil prices have lifted 5-year Treasury yields to approximately 4.54% as of early September 2026, up sharply from earlier in the year amid persistent inflation concerns. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revisions to the 2026 funds-rate path have reinforced expectations for potential rate hikes, with futures markets pricing roughly 30-65 basis points of tightening by year-end depending on incoming data. Resilient growth, firm labor markets, and elevated breakeven inflation measures continue to support higher term premia, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and payroll releases represent key near-term catalysts that could extend the recent yield climb.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETRecent Middle East tensions and surging oil prices have lifted 5-year Treasury yields to approximately 4.54% as of early September 2026, up sharply from earlier in the year amid persistent inflation concerns. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish communications and the June SEP’s upward revisions to the 2026 funds-rate path have reinforced expectations for potential rate hikes, with futures markets pricing roughly 30-65 basis points of tightening by year-end depending on incoming data. Resilient growth, firm labor markets, and elevated breakeven inflation measures continue to support higher term premia, while the September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and payroll releases represent key near-term catalysts that could extend the recent yield climb.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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