The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$388,693 交易量
2026-01-10
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
5%
$388,693 交易量
5.0%
$102,277 交易量
28%
5.5%
$186,719 交易量
14%
6.0%
$52,180 交易量
13%
7.0%
$21,511 交易量
10%
10.0%
$26,006 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$388,693结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$388,693结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The latest U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3 percent in April 2026, with nonfarm payrolls adding a modest 115,000 jobs and the labor force participation rate slipping to 61.8 percent. Forecasters, including the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 Summary of Economic Projections, anticipate a gradual rise to a median 4.4 percent by year-end amid cooling hiring trends and subdued GDP growth around 1.8 percent. Key swing factors include the pace of job creation in health care and retail versus ongoing federal government cuts, alongside wage growth that has eased to 3.6 percent year-over-year. The next Employment Situation report on June 5 could shift sentiment if initial claims continue their recent uptick or if broader indicators like the Sahm Rule begin to flash. Traders are pricing in a contained increase rather than sharp deterioration, reflecting the labor market’s current low-hire, low-fire equilibrium.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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