SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于5次 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 交易量
$450,036 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
49%
5-6
26%
7-8
4%
9-10
3%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
4%
少于5次 50%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
>16 4.1%
$450,036 交易量
$450,036 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
$90,622 交易量
49%
5-6
$108,327 交易量
26%
7-8
$152,207 交易量
4%
9-10
$55,882 交易量
3%
11-12
$3,765 交易量
2%
13-14
$4,747 交易量
1%
15-16
$25,181 交易量
2%
>16
$9,304 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$450,036结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$450,036结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's debut of the Starship V3 architecture on the upcoming Flight 12 test, now targeted for May 19 from the new Starbase Pad 2, anchors trader sentiment around fewer than five successful space-reaching launches for the full year. The vehicle remains in an extended test phase after eleven prior flights through late 2025, with V3 introducing redesigned Raptor 3 engines, increased propellant capacity, and rapid reusability goals that have yet to demonstrate orbital insertion or booster catch at scale. Regulatory constraints, including the FAA's 44-launch annual cap, plus historical cadence limits and the need for iterative fixes on each attempt, sustain the market's strong lean toward modest totals. Successful early V3 missions could unlock a steeper ramp later in 2026, but traders appear to price in continued technical and approval hurdles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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