Recent delays pushing the debut of Starship Version 3 to mid-May 2026, combined with only five flights across all of 2025, have anchored trader sentiment around fewer than five successful launches reaching space this year. The new Block 3 vehicles introduce redesigned Raptor engines, larger propellant tanks, and a second orbital launch pad, requiring extensive static-fire and wet-dress validation before reliable orbital insertion or in-space refueling demonstrations. Regulatory ceilings of 44 annual launches further constrain cadence while SpaceX prioritizes long-duration orbital tests and propellant-transfer milestones targeted for later in 2026. These developmental hurdles explain the market’s strong preference for the sub-five outcome even as the first 2026 flight approaches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于5次 46%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
9-10 2.4%
$449,780 交易量
$449,780 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
46%
5-6
27%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
2%
少于5次 46%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
9-10 2.4%
$449,780 交易量
$449,780 交易量
2026-12-31
少于5次
$90,622 交易量
46%
5-6
$108,327 交易量
27%
7-8
$152,207 交易量
4%
9-10
$55,882 交易量
2%
11-12
$3,765 交易量
2%
13-14
$4,747 交易量
1%
15-16
$25,181 交易量
2%
>16
$9,048 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent delays pushing the debut of Starship Version 3 to mid-May 2026, combined with only five flights across all of 2025, have anchored trader sentiment around fewer than five successful launches reaching space this year. The new Block 3 vehicles introduce redesigned Raptor engines, larger propellant tanks, and a second orbital launch pad, requiring extensive static-fire and wet-dress validation before reliable orbital insertion or in-space refueling demonstrations. Regulatory ceilings of 44 annual launches further constrain cadence while SpaceX prioritizes long-duration orbital tests and propellant-transfer milestones targeted for later in 2026. These developmental hurdles explain the market’s strong preference for the sub-five outcome even as the first 2026 flight approaches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
交易量
$449,780结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent delays pushing the debut of Starship Version 3 to mid-May 2026, combined with only five flights across all of 2025, have anchored trader sentiment around fewer than five successful launches reaching space this year. The new Block 3 vehicles introduce redesigned Raptor engines, larger propellant tanks, and a second orbital launch pad, requiring extensive static-fire and wet-dress validation before reliable orbital insertion or in-space refueling demonstrations. Regulatory ceilings of 44 annual launches further constrain cadence while SpaceX prioritizes long-duration orbital tests and propellant-transfer milestones targeted for later in 2026. These developmental hurdles explain the market’s strong preference for the sub-five outcome even as the first 2026 flight approaches.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$449,780结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent delays pushing the debut of Starship Version 3 to mid-May 2026, combined with only five flights across all of 2025, have anchored trader sentiment around fewer than five successful launches reaching space this year. The new Block 3 vehicles introduce redesigned Raptor engines, larger propellant tanks, and a second orbital launch pad, requiring extensive static-fire and wet-dress validation before reliable orbital insertion or in-space refueling demonstrations. Regulatory ceilings of 44 annual launches further constrain cadence while SpaceX prioritizes long-duration orbital tests and propellant-transfer milestones targeted for later in 2026. These developmental hurdles explain the market’s strong preference for the sub-five outcome even as the first 2026 flight approaches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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