NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system detects no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, anchoring trader sentiment at a 96.2% implied probability for no 1-megaton bolide—equivalent to a roughly 20–25-meter stony asteroid airburst. Recent discoveries, such as school bus-sized 2026 JH2 (spotted May 10 and safely passing May 18), exemplify rapid characterization ruling out threats amid record NEO finds this year. Comprehensive monitoring covers over 30,000 NEOs, with historical data showing such events rarer than once per decade (e.g., 2013 Chelyabinsk at 0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving impactor evading surveys until late detection via fireball networks, though baseline odds remain low per CNEOS fireball catalogs. Ongoing radar and optical observations will refine risks through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$105,999 交易量
$105,999 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$105,999 交易量
$105,999 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system detects no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, anchoring trader sentiment at a 96.2% implied probability for no 1-megaton bolide—equivalent to a roughly 20–25-meter stony asteroid airburst. Recent discoveries, such as school bus-sized 2026 JH2 (spotted May 10 and safely passing May 18), exemplify rapid characterization ruling out threats amid record NEO finds this year. Comprehensive monitoring covers over 30,000 NEOs, with historical data showing such events rarer than once per decade (e.g., 2013 Chelyabinsk at 0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving impactor evading surveys until late detection via fireball networks, though baseline odds remain low per CNEOS fireball catalogs. Ongoing radar and optical observations will refine risks through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$105,999结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system detects no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, anchoring trader sentiment at a 96.2% implied probability for no 1-megaton bolide—equivalent to a roughly 20–25-meter stony asteroid airburst. Recent discoveries, such as school bus-sized 2026 JH2 (spotted May 10 and safely passing May 18), exemplify rapid characterization ruling out threats amid record NEO finds this year. Comprehensive monitoring covers over 30,000 NEOs, with historical data showing such events rarer than once per decade (e.g., 2013 Chelyabinsk at 0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving impactor evading surveys until late detection via fireball networks, though baseline odds remain low per CNEOS fireball catalogs. Ongoing radar and optical observations will refine risks through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$105,999结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system detects no potential Earth impacts from tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) in 2026, anchoring trader sentiment at a 96.2% implied probability for no 1-megaton bolide—equivalent to a roughly 20–25-meter stony asteroid airburst. Recent discoveries, such as school bus-sized 2026 JH2 (spotted May 10 and safely passing May 18), exemplify rapid characterization ruling out threats amid record NEO finds this year. Comprehensive monitoring covers over 30,000 NEOs, with historical data showing such events rarer than once per decade (e.g., 2013 Chelyabinsk at 0.44 megatons). Realistic shifts could arise from an undetected small, fast-moving impactor evading surveys until late detection via fireball networks, though baseline odds remain low per CNEOS fireball catalogs. Ongoing radar and optical observations will refine risks through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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