Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through CNEOS and the Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses for 2026, with surveys confirming zero credible threats through at least the coming decade. Traders assign near-certain odds to "No" because objects large enough to produce this yield—roughly 20–50 meters across—are well within current detection thresholds for stony or metallic bodies, and historical impact rates for such events are extremely low. While an undetected long-period comet or newly discovered asteroid could theoretically alter trajectories, ongoing wide-field surveys and orbital refinements make last-minute surprises highly improbable before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
1% 概率
$116,324 交易量
$116,324 交易量
2026-12-31
是
1% 概率
$116,324 交易量
$116,324 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through CNEOS and the Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses for 2026, with surveys confirming zero credible threats through at least the coming decade. Traders assign near-certain odds to "No" because objects large enough to produce this yield—roughly 20–50 meters across—are well within current detection thresholds for stony or metallic bodies, and historical impact rates for such events are extremely low. While an undetected long-period comet or newly discovered asteroid could theoretically alter trajectories, ongoing wide-field surveys and orbital refinements make last-minute surprises highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$116,324结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through CNEOS and the Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses for 2026, with surveys confirming zero credible threats through at least the coming decade. Traders assign near-certain odds to "No" because objects large enough to produce this yield—roughly 20–50 meters across—are well within current detection thresholds for stony or metallic bodies, and historical impact rates for such events are extremely low. While an undetected long-period comet or newly discovered asteroid could theoretically alter trajectories, ongoing wide-field surveys and orbital refinements make last-minute surprises highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$116,324结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA and ESA planetary defense monitoring through CNEOS and the Sentry system has identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering 1-megaton-scale impact energy on collision courses for 2026, with surveys confirming zero credible threats through at least the coming decade. Traders assign near-certain odds to "No" because objects large enough to produce this yield—roughly 20–50 meters across—are well within current detection thresholds for stony or metallic bodies, and historical impact rates for such events are extremely low. While an undetected long-period comet or newly discovered asteroid could theoretically alter trajectories, ongoing wide-field surveys and orbital refinements make last-minute surprises highly improbable before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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