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icon for 2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？
气候与科学·天气与科学

2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？

icon for 2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？
气候与科学·天气与科学

2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？

1 73%

2 27%

3 <1%

4 <1%

Polymarket

$3,465,511 交易量

1 73%

2 27%

3 <1%

4 <1%

Polymarket

$3,465,511 交易量

1

$622,332 交易量

73%

2

$414,215 交易量

27%

3

$510,802 交易量

1%

4

$531,073 交易量

<1%

5

$843,445 交易量

<1%

6或以下

$543,644 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Strong El Niño conditions building in the equatorial Pacific, layered on long-term anthropogenic warming, are driving the 73% market-implied probability that 2026 finishes as the warmest year on record. August 2026 set the hottest August and tied the all-time monthly record at roughly 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline according to Copernicus, NOAA, and NASA data, pushing the January–August average to second place behind only 2024. The developing super El Niño—forecast by multiple models to reach exceptional strength—typically releases additional heat to the atmosphere with a lag, supporting the 26.5% odds of a second-place finish and near-zero chances of ranking third or lower. Remaining 2026 months and updated ENSO forecasts will determine whether the year closes above or below 2024’s anomaly.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,465,511
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

结算方

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Strong El Niño conditions building in the equatorial Pacific, layered on long-term anthropogenic warming, are driving the 73% market-implied probability that 2026 finishes as the warmest year on record. August 2026 set the hottest August and tied the all-time monthly record at roughly 1.65 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline according to Copernicus, NOAA, and NASA data, pushing the January–August average to second place behind only 2024. The developing super El Niño—forecast by multiple models to reach exceptional strength—typically releases additional heat to the atmosphere with a lag, supporting the 26.5% odds of a second-place finish and near-zero chances of ranking third or lower. Remaining 2026 months and updated ENSO forecasts will determine whether the year closes above or below 2024’s anomaly.

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,465,511
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET

结算方

0x2F5e3684c...

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常见问题

"2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1"，概率为 73%，其次是"2"，概率为 27%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 73¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 73%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？"已产生 $3.5 million 的总交易量（自Nov 12, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？"的当前领先者是"1"，概率为 73%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 73%。紧随其后的结果是"2"，概率为 27%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年将跻身有史以来最热的年份之列？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。