Recent record August temperatures, confirmed by NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus as the planet’s hottest month on record and tied with July 2023, have positioned 2026 as the frontrunner for the warmest year. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, already exceeding prior events in key indices and forecast to reach super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is releasing additional ocean heat into the atmosphere on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Year-to-date global averages through August rank second behind 2024, with model consensus and expert estimates like those from Zeke Hausfather implying roughly a 75% chance of 2026 claiming the top spot. Remaining months and inter-dataset variability introduce uncertainty, but current trajectories strongly support the market’s elevated implied probability for first place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于1 74%
2 27%
3 <1%
4 <1%
$3,473,727 交易量
$3,473,727 交易量
2026-12-30
1
74%
2
27%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
6或以下
<1%
1 74%
2 27%
3 <1%
4 <1%
$3,473,727 交易量
$3,473,727 交易量
2026-12-30
1
$630,530 交易量
74%
2
$414,225 交易量
27%
3
$510,802 交易量
1%
4
$531,080 交易量
<1%
5
$843,445 交易量
<1%
6或以下
$543,644 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent record August temperatures, confirmed by NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus as the planet’s hottest month on record and tied with July 2023, have positioned 2026 as the frontrunner for the warmest year. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, already exceeding prior events in key indices and forecast to reach super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is releasing additional ocean heat into the atmosphere on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Year-to-date global averages through August rank second behind 2024, with model consensus and expert estimates like those from Zeke Hausfather implying roughly a 75% chance of 2026 claiming the top spot. Remaining months and inter-dataset variability introduce uncertainty, but current trajectories strongly support the market’s elevated implied probability for first place.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$3,473,727结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent record August temperatures, confirmed by NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus as the planet’s hottest month on record and tied with July 2023, have positioned 2026 as the frontrunner for the warmest year. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, already exceeding prior events in key indices and forecast to reach super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is releasing additional ocean heat into the atmosphere on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Year-to-date global averages through August rank second behind 2024, with model consensus and expert estimates like those from Zeke Hausfather implying roughly a 75% chance of 2026 claiming the top spot. Remaining months and inter-dataset variability introduce uncertainty, but current trajectories strongly support the market’s elevated implied probability for first place.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$3,473,727结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETRecent record August temperatures, confirmed by NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus as the planet’s hottest month on record and tied with July 2023, have positioned 2026 as the frontrunner for the warmest year. A rapidly strengthening El Niño, already exceeding prior events in key indices and forecast to reach super-El Niño levels by late 2026, is releasing additional ocean heat into the atmosphere on top of the long-term anthropogenic warming trend. Year-to-date global averages through August rank second behind 2024, with model consensus and expert estimates like those from Zeke Hausfather implying roughly a 75% chance of 2026 claiming the top spot. Remaining months and inter-dataset variability introduce uncertainty, but current trajectories strongly support the market’s elevated implied probability for first place.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题