Recent observational data from multiple agencies place 2026 on track for the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperatures averaging around 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels through early months and a developing El Niño expected to intensify warming through the second half of the year. This positioning explains the market’s 57.5% implied probability for a second-place finish and 35.5% for first, reflecting trader consensus that 2026 will surpass 2025 and 2023 but likely fall short of 2024’s record 1.55°C peak unless late-year El Niño effects exceed current model guidance. Historical ENSO patterns and ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing support these outcomes while underscoring forecast uncertainty around exact ranking thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6或以下 2.3%
$2,821,275 交易量
$2,821,275 交易量
2026-12-31
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6或以下
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6或以下 2.3%
$2,821,275 交易量
$2,821,275 交易量
2026-12-31
1
$453,741 交易量
36%
2
$325,824 交易量
57%
3
$428,143 交易量
2%
4
$416,574 交易量
3%
5
$732,047 交易量
1%
6或以下
$464,948 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent observational data from multiple agencies place 2026 on track for the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperatures averaging around 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels through early months and a developing El Niño expected to intensify warming through the second half of the year. This positioning explains the market’s 57.5% implied probability for a second-place finish and 35.5% for first, reflecting trader consensus that 2026 will surpass 2025 and 2023 but likely fall short of 2024’s record 1.55°C peak unless late-year El Niño effects exceed current model guidance. Historical ENSO patterns and ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing support these outcomes while underscoring forecast uncertainty around exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,821,275结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent observational data from multiple agencies place 2026 on track for the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperatures averaging around 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels through early months and a developing El Niño expected to intensify warming through the second half of the year. This positioning explains the market’s 57.5% implied probability for a second-place finish and 35.5% for first, reflecting trader consensus that 2026 will surpass 2025 and 2023 but likely fall short of 2024’s record 1.55°C peak unless late-year El Niño effects exceed current model guidance. Historical ENSO patterns and ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing support these outcomes while underscoring forecast uncertainty around exact ranking thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,821,275结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent observational data from multiple agencies place 2026 on track for the second-warmest year on record, with global surface temperatures averaging around 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels through early months and a developing El Niño expected to intensify warming through the second half of the year. This positioning explains the market’s 57.5% implied probability for a second-place finish and 35.5% for first, reflecting trader consensus that 2026 will surpass 2025 and 2023 but likely fall short of 2024’s record 1.55°C peak unless late-year El Niño effects exceed current model guidance. Historical ENSO patterns and ongoing greenhouse-gas forcing support these outcomes while underscoring forecast uncertainty around exact ranking thresholds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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