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icon for 谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？

谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？

icon for 谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？

谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？

$519,093 交易量

2026-07-30
Polymarket

$519,093 交易量

Polymarket

王宏

$72,195 交易量

80%

雅各布·奇梅尔曼

$54,107 交易量

67%

杰克·索恩

$100,528 交易量

56%

邓宇

$116,590 交易量

37%

约翰·帕登

$84,016 交易量

35%

朱利安·萨哈斯拉布德

$84,501 交易量

26%

萨姆·拉斯金

$2,483 交易量

25%

亚历山大·洛古诺夫

$204 交易量

18%

威尔·索温

$3,940 交易量

15%

亚历山大·叶菲莫夫

$529 交易量

10%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus crowns Chinese mathematician Hong Wang as the frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, propelled by her late-April sweep of two major precursor prizes—bolstering momentum from her breakthrough proof of the Kakeya set conjecture. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne trail closely, buoyed by resolutions of the Andre-Oort conjecture and key arithmetic Langlands problems, respectively, amid math community buzz on forums like Reddit. With the secretive International Mathematical Union committee yet to decide—typically awarding 2-4 medals to under-40 innovators—upsets remain possible, echoing past surprises. Watch for final whispers ahead of the announcement at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, July 23-30.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$519,093
结束日期
2026-07-30
市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus crowns Chinese mathematician Hong Wang as the frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, propelled by her late-April sweep of two major precursor prizes—bolstering momentum from her breakthrough proof of the Kakeya set conjecture. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne trail closely, buoyed by resolutions of the Andre-Oort conjecture and key arithmetic Langlands problems, respectively, amid math community buzz on forums like Reddit. With the secretive International Mathematical Union committee yet to decide—typically awarding 2-4 medals to under-40 innovators—upsets remain possible, echoing past surprises. Watch for final whispers ahead of the announcement at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, July 23-30.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
交易量
$519,093
结束日期
2026-07-30
市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 10 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"王宏"，概率为 80%，其次是"雅各布·奇梅尔曼"，概率为 67%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 80¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 80%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"已产生 $519.1K 的总交易量（自Jan 6, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 10 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"的当前领先者是"王宏"，概率为 80%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 80%。紧随其后的结果是"雅各布·奇梅尔曼"，概率为 67%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"谁将赢得2026年菲尔兹奖章？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。