Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, following neutral-to-La Niña conditions, is reinforcing the underlying anthropogenic warming trend and supporting June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. April 2026 data showed 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, while 2025 annual means reached approximately 1.19 °C, and WMO forecasts indicate sustained elevated temperatures through 2026–2030 with high likelihood of record or near-record years. Early-month observations and model consensus point to modest additional warming from emerging El Niño sea-surface temperature anomalies, tempered by seasonal timing and natural variability. Upcoming June and July releases from agencies such as NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus will refine these market-implied probabilities as more observational data become available.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 21%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
21%
1.15–1.19ºC
62%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 21%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
<1.10ºC 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
<1.10ºC
$325 交易量
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$4,727 交易量
21%
1.15–1.19ºC
$76 交易量
62%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,583 交易量
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,263 交易量
3%
>1.29ºC
$842 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, following neutral-to-La Niña conditions, is reinforcing the underlying anthropogenic warming trend and supporting June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. April 2026 data showed 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, while 2025 annual means reached approximately 1.19 °C, and WMO forecasts indicate sustained elevated temperatures through 2026–2030 with high likelihood of record or near-record years. Early-month observations and model consensus point to modest additional warming from emerging El Niño sea-surface temperature anomalies, tempered by seasonal timing and natural variability. Upcoming June and July releases from agencies such as NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus will refine these market-implied probabilities as more observational data become available.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
交易量
$8,816结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, following neutral-to-La Niña conditions, is reinforcing the underlying anthropogenic warming trend and supporting June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. April 2026 data showed 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, while 2025 annual means reached approximately 1.19 °C, and WMO forecasts indicate sustained elevated temperatures through 2026–2030 with high likelihood of record or near-record years. Early-month observations and model consensus point to modest additional warming from emerging El Niño sea-surface temperature anomalies, tempered by seasonal timing and natural variability. Upcoming June and July releases from agencies such as NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus will refine these market-implied probabilities as more observational data become available.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$8,816结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño development in the equatorial Pacific, following neutral-to-La Niña conditions, is reinforcing the underlying anthropogenic warming trend and supporting June 2026 global mean surface temperature anomalies clustered around 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. April 2026 data showed 1.12 °C above the 20th-century average per NOAA, while 2025 annual means reached approximately 1.19 °C, and WMO forecasts indicate sustained elevated temperatures through 2026–2030 with high likelihood of record or near-record years. Early-month observations and model consensus point to modest additional warming from emerging El Niño sea-surface temperature anomalies, tempered by seasonal timing and natural variability. Upcoming June and July releases from agencies such as NOAA, NASA, and Copernicus will refine these market-implied probabilities as more observational data become available.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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