The emergence of El Niño conditions, with an 82% chance of developing by May–July 2026 according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an 87% implied probability that 2026 will feature a record-warm month. Long-term anthropogenic warming has already placed recent years near the top of global temperature rankings, and the expected ocean-atmosphere coupling during El Niño typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C to annual averages, with peak monthly impacts often occurring in late 2026. Early 2026 data from NOAA and Copernicus show the first four months ranking among the top five warmest on record, consistent with this trajectory. While El Niño strength remains uncertain and could moderate outcomes, historical analogs and current model ensembles indicate limited realistic pathways for every month to stay below prior peaks.