Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability for no natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying events through mid-May despite extensive monitoring by USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, NASA CNEOS, and National Hurricane Center. No earthquakes reached magnitude 8.5+ (largest 2026 event: M7.5 near Tonga in March), no volcanic eruptions hit Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 amid 47 lower-level events, no meteors yielded ≥10 kilotons TNT equivalent, and no Category 5 hurricanes made U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade (last: 2018 Michael), VEI ≥6 every 50+ years (last: 1991 Pinatubo)—bolstered by below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watches: June 1 hurricane season start and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$217,899 交易量
$217,899 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$217,899 交易量
$217,899 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability for no natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying events through mid-May despite extensive monitoring by USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, NASA CNEOS, and National Hurricane Center. No earthquakes reached magnitude 8.5+ (largest 2026 event: M7.5 near Tonga in March), no volcanic eruptions hit Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 amid 47 lower-level events, no meteors yielded ≥10 kilotons TNT equivalent, and no Category 5 hurricanes made U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade (last: 2018 Michael), VEI ≥6 every 50+ years (last: 1991 Pinatubo)—bolstered by below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watches: June 1 hurricane season start and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$217,899结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability for no natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying events through mid-May despite extensive monitoring by USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, NASA CNEOS, and National Hurricane Center. No earthquakes reached magnitude 8.5+ (largest 2026 event: M7.5 near Tonga in March), no volcanic eruptions hit Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 amid 47 lower-level events, no meteors yielded ≥10 kilotons TNT equivalent, and no Category 5 hurricanes made U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade (last: 2018 Michael), VEI ≥6 every 50+ years (last: 1991 Pinatubo)—bolstered by below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watches: June 1 hurricane season start and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$217,899结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 72.5% probability for no natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any qualifying events through mid-May despite extensive monitoring by USGS, Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program, NASA CNEOS, and National Hurricane Center. No earthquakes reached magnitude 8.5+ (largest 2026 event: M7.5 near Tonga in March), no volcanic eruptions hit Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥6 amid 47 lower-level events, no meteors yielded ≥10 kilotons TNT equivalent, and no Category 5 hurricanes made U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Historical baselines underscore rarity—U.S. Cat 5 landfalls average once per decade (last: 2018 Michael), VEI ≥6 every 50+ years (last: 1991 Pinatubo)—bolstered by below-normal Atlantic hurricane forecasts from NOAA amid neutral ENSO transition. Key watches: June 1 hurricane season start and ongoing seismic/volcanic surveillance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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