Despite ongoing US-Iran hostilities and related Middle East tensions, including recent Strait of Hormuz incidents and rejected ceasefire proposals, diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators have advanced framework talks that could stabilize the situation. These efforts, combined with no immediate major escalations in other regions since early 2026, have supported trader consensus around a 64% implied probability that no additional large-scale events will unfold through year-end. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations on trade and security issues represent key variables that could either reinforce or disrupt this outlook in the coming months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$559,398 交易量
$559,398 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$559,398 交易量
$559,398 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfDespite ongoing US-Iran hostilities and related Middle East tensions, including recent Strait of Hormuz incidents and rejected ceasefire proposals, diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators have advanced framework talks that could stabilize the situation. These efforts, combined with no immediate major escalations in other regions since early 2026, have supported trader consensus around a 64% implied probability that no additional large-scale events will unfold through year-end. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations on trade and security issues represent key variables that could either reinforce or disrupt this outlook in the coming months.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$559,398结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfDespite ongoing US-Iran hostilities and related Middle East tensions, including recent Strait of Hormuz incidents and rejected ceasefire proposals, diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators have advanced framework talks that could stabilize the situation. These efforts, combined with no immediate major escalations in other regions since early 2026, have supported trader consensus around a 64% implied probability that no additional large-scale events will unfold through year-end. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations on trade and security issues represent key variables that could either reinforce or disrupt this outlook in the coming months.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
交易量
$559,429结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite ongoing US-Iran hostilities and related Middle East tensions, including recent Strait of Hormuz incidents and rejected ceasefire proposals, diplomatic channels through Pakistan and other mediators have advanced framework talks that could stabilize the situation. These efforts, combined with no immediate major escalations in other regions since early 2026, have supported trader consensus around a 64% implied probability that no additional large-scale events will unfold through year-end. Scheduled summits and ongoing negotiations on trade and security issues represent key variables that could either reinforce or disrupt this outlook in the coming months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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