Recent U.S. efforts to escort neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom, alongside Energy Secretary statements projecting reopening by summer at latest, have lifted the market-implied probability of normalized traffic by December 31 to 77.5%. A February 2026 U.S.-Israel offensive against Iran triggered Iranian closure and a sustained 95% drop in daily transits, stranding over 1,500 vessels and sharply curtailing oil and LNG flows. Although an April 8 ceasefire eased some risks, traffic remains minimal at roughly 5-7 vessels daily versus pre-conflict averages of 120-plus. Traders price in gradual de-escalation through naval presence and diplomatic channels while recognizing that renewed Iranian restrictions or mine-clearance delays could still extend disruptions into late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$135,441 交易量
$135,441 交易量
2026-12-31
$135,441 交易量
$135,441 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S. efforts to escort neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom, alongside Energy Secretary statements projecting reopening by summer at latest, have lifted the market-implied probability of normalized traffic by December 31 to 77.5%. A February 2026 U.S.-Israel offensive against Iran triggered Iranian closure and a sustained 95% drop in daily transits, stranding over 1,500 vessels and sharply curtailing oil and LNG flows. Although an April 8 ceasefire eased some risks, traffic remains minimal at roughly 5-7 vessels daily versus pre-conflict averages of 120-plus. Traders price in gradual de-escalation through naval presence and diplomatic channels while recognizing that renewed Iranian restrictions or mine-clearance delays could still extend disruptions into late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
交易量
$135,441结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent U.S. efforts to escort neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom, alongside Energy Secretary statements projecting reopening by summer at latest, have lifted the market-implied probability of normalized traffic by December 31 to 77.5%. A February 2026 U.S.-Israel offensive against Iran triggered Iranian closure and a sustained 95% drop in daily transits, stranding over 1,500 vessels and sharply curtailing oil and LNG flows. Although an April 8 ceasefire eased some risks, traffic remains minimal at roughly 5-7 vessels daily versus pre-conflict averages of 120-plus. Traders price in gradual de-escalation through naval presence and diplomatic channels while recognizing that renewed Iranian restrictions or mine-clearance delays could still extend disruptions into late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$135,441结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. efforts to escort neutral vessels through the Strait of Hormuz under Project Freedom, alongside Energy Secretary statements projecting reopening by summer at latest, have lifted the market-implied probability of normalized traffic by December 31 to 77.5%. A February 2026 U.S.-Israel offensive against Iran triggered Iranian closure and a sustained 95% drop in daily transits, stranding over 1,500 vessels and sharply curtailing oil and LNG flows. Although an April 8 ceasefire eased some risks, traffic remains minimal at roughly 5-7 vessels daily versus pre-conflict averages of 120-plus. Traders price in gradual de-escalation through naval presence and diplomatic channels while recognizing that renewed Iranian restrictions or mine-clearance delays could still extend disruptions into late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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