Recent U.S.-Iran indirect negotiations, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced modest diplomatic openings that explain the closely balanced trader consensus near 53% Yes. Iran has reviewed a U.S. framework that would suspend enrichment activities in return for sanctions relief and frozen-asset releases, while signaling readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile rather than transfer it outright. Core sticking points remain the duration of any halt—Washington has pressed for a 20-year moratorium while Tehran has floated five years—and the scope of IAEA verification. Iranian statements continue to affirm enrichment as a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and recent threats to resume higher-level enrichment if strikes resume keep downside risk for Yes visible. Any concrete sanctions-easing announcement or formal suspension pledge before year-end could strengthen Yes positioning, whereas renewed military tensions or hardened Iranian red lines would favor No.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$194,984 交易量
$194,984 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$194,984 交易量
$194,984 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran indirect negotiations, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced modest diplomatic openings that explain the closely balanced trader consensus near 53% Yes. Iran has reviewed a U.S. framework that would suspend enrichment activities in return for sanctions relief and frozen-asset releases, while signaling readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile rather than transfer it outright. Core sticking points remain the duration of any halt—Washington has pressed for a 20-year moratorium while Tehran has floated five years—and the scope of IAEA verification. Iranian statements continue to affirm enrichment as a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and recent threats to resume higher-level enrichment if strikes resume keep downside risk for Yes visible. Any concrete sanctions-easing announcement or formal suspension pledge before year-end could strengthen Yes positioning, whereas renewed military tensions or hardened Iranian red lines would favor No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
交易量
$194,984结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S.-Iran indirect negotiations, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced modest diplomatic openings that explain the closely balanced trader consensus near 53% Yes. Iran has reviewed a U.S. framework that would suspend enrichment activities in return for sanctions relief and frozen-asset releases, while signaling readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile rather than transfer it outright. Core sticking points remain the duration of any halt—Washington has pressed for a 20-year moratorium while Tehran has floated five years—and the scope of IAEA verification. Iranian statements continue to affirm enrichment as a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and recent threats to resume higher-level enrichment if strikes resume keep downside risk for Yes visible. Any concrete sanctions-easing announcement or formal suspension pledge before year-end could strengthen Yes positioning, whereas renewed military tensions or hardened Iranian red lines would favor No.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$194,984结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran indirect negotiations, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, have produced modest diplomatic openings that explain the closely balanced trader consensus near 53% Yes. Iran has reviewed a U.S. framework that would suspend enrichment activities in return for sanctions relief and frozen-asset releases, while signaling readiness to downblend its highly enriched uranium stockpile rather than transfer it outright. Core sticking points remain the duration of any halt—Washington has pressed for a 20-year moratorium while Tehran has floated five years—and the scope of IAEA verification. Iranian statements continue to affirm enrichment as a sovereign right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and recent threats to resume higher-level enrichment if strikes resume keep downside risk for Yes visible. Any concrete sanctions-easing announcement or formal suspension pledge before year-end could strengthen Yes positioning, whereas renewed military tensions or hardened Iranian red lines would favor No.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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