US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–April 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging infrastructure and burying much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile according to IAEA assessments and satellite imagery. These operations, combined with the withdrawal of inspectors and a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum reaffirming non-weaponization, have left the program in a degraded state with experts citing elevated detection risks and technical barriers to rapid reconstitution. Trader consensus at 95.5% against an Iranian nuclear device before 2027 reflects this sustained degradation and credible ongoing threats of further action if enrichment resumes. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs or undetected recovery of materials remain the primary variables that could alter timelines within the resolution window.