US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout time to produce a weapon remains 9-12 months, unchanged despite Spring strikes on weaponization sites and prior 2025 attacks that destroyed key enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow. With roughly seven months left before 2027, this timeline exceeds the window, bolstering trader consensus at 91% for "No." IAEA reports highlight a pre-strike stockpile of 440 kg uranium enriched to 60%—potentially enough for multiple bombs if further processed—but verification lapsed post-strikes, with no resumed enrichment or IAEA access. Stalled US-Iran talks over highly enriched uranium status and sovereignty issues add uncertainty, as Iran signals no major concessions amid threats of escalation.