US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 destroyed or severely damaged Iran's main enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting confirmed uranium enrichment activity. IAEA inspectors have had little or no access to key sites since, leaving the status of roughly 200-440 kg of 60% enriched uranium uncertain and prompting a September 2026 UN Security Council referral for safeguards noncompliance. Intelligence assessments and satellite analysis indicate reconstruction efforts at some locations but place breakout time to a weapon at around one year or longer if Iran decides to pursue it. Ongoing diplomatic talks and the broader conflict further constrain rapid advances. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these structural setbacks, though shifts could occur if Iran successfully reconstitutes capacity at hardened or undisclosed sites or if verification access remains blocked through 2026.