Iran has issued repeated threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since early 2025, including parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites and related sanctions pressures. These moves, often tied to IAEA disputes and snapback mechanisms, have not advanced to formal withdrawal. Iranian officials continue to operate under NPT safeguards obligations and engage in nuclear diplomacy, including talks through intermediaries. The substantial diplomatic, economic, and technical costs of leaving the treaty—including loss of civil nuclear cooperation and heightened isolation—appear to constrain action. Trader consensus at 89.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetoric without implementation, alongside Iran's ongoing participation in the NPT framework through August 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
11% 概率
$321,040 交易量
$321,040 交易量
2026-12-31
是
11% 概率
$321,040 交易量
$321,040 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has issued repeated threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since early 2025, including parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites and related sanctions pressures. These moves, often tied to IAEA disputes and snapback mechanisms, have not advanced to formal withdrawal. Iranian officials continue to operate under NPT safeguards obligations and engage in nuclear diplomacy, including talks through intermediaries. The substantial diplomatic, economic, and technical costs of leaving the treaty—including loss of civil nuclear cooperation and heightened isolation—appear to constrain action. Trader consensus at 89.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetoric without implementation, alongside Iran's ongoing participation in the NPT framework through August 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
交易量
$321,040结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran has issued repeated threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since early 2025, including parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites and related sanctions pressures. These moves, often tied to IAEA disputes and snapback mechanisms, have not advanced to formal withdrawal. Iranian officials continue to operate under NPT safeguards obligations and engage in nuclear diplomacy, including talks through intermediaries. The substantial diplomatic, economic, and technical costs of leaving the treaty—including loss of civil nuclear cooperation and heightened isolation—appear to constrain action. Trader consensus at 89.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetoric without implementation, alongside Iran's ongoing participation in the NPT framework through August 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$321,040结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran has issued repeated threats to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since early 2025, including parliamentary bills introduced in March 2026 amid U.S. and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites and related sanctions pressures. These moves, often tied to IAEA disputes and snapback mechanisms, have not advanced to formal withdrawal. Iranian officials continue to operate under NPT safeguards obligations and engage in nuclear diplomacy, including talks through intermediaries. The substantial diplomatic, economic, and technical costs of leaving the treaty—including loss of civil nuclear cooperation and heightened isolation—appear to constrain action. Trader consensus at 89.5% against withdrawal before 2027 reflects this pattern of rhetoric without implementation, alongside Iran's ongoing participation in the NPT framework through August 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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