The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity and security forces’ loyalty amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military pressure explain traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Despite the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent airstrikes, core bodies including the IRGC have retained control, quelling earlier economic protests through arrests and pro-regime mobilization. Recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026, including Iranian proposals and U.S. counteroffers under a fragile ceasefire, reflect the leadership’s focus on negotiating an end to hostilities and blockades while reinforcing internal unity. Economic strains from sanctions and restricted Strait of Hormuz access have prompted contingency planning rather than defections. Escalation in negotiations or renewed unrest could still shift probabilities, yet current evidence points to sustained regime resilience through the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$17,909,204 交易量
$17,909,204 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$17,909,204 交易量
$17,909,204 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity and security forces’ loyalty amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military pressure explain traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Despite the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent airstrikes, core bodies including the IRGC have retained control, quelling earlier economic protests through arrests and pro-regime mobilization. Recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026, including Iranian proposals and U.S. counteroffers under a fragile ceasefire, reflect the leadership’s focus on negotiating an end to hostilities and blockades while reinforcing internal unity. Economic strains from sanctions and restricted Strait of Hormuz access have prompted contingency planning rather than defections. Escalation in negotiations or renewed unrest could still shift probabilities, yet current evidence points to sustained regime resilience through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
交易量
$17,909,204结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity and security forces’ loyalty amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military pressure explain traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Despite the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent airstrikes, core bodies including the IRGC have retained control, quelling earlier economic protests through arrests and pro-regime mobilization. Recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026, including Iranian proposals and U.S. counteroffers under a fragile ceasefire, reflect the leadership’s focus on negotiating an end to hostilities and blockades while reinforcing internal unity. Economic strains from sanctions and restricted Strait of Hormuz access have prompted contingency planning rather than defections. Escalation in negotiations or renewed unrest could still shift probabilities, yet current evidence points to sustained regime resilience through the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,909,204结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s institutional continuity and security forces’ loyalty amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military pressure explain traders’ strong consensus against collapse before 2027. Despite the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent airstrikes, core bodies including the IRGC have retained control, quelling earlier economic protests through arrests and pro-regime mobilization. Recent diplomatic exchanges in May 2026, including Iranian proposals and U.S. counteroffers under a fragile ceasefire, reflect the leadership’s focus on negotiating an end to hostilities and blockades while reinforcing internal unity. Economic strains from sanctions and restricted Strait of Hormuz access have prompted contingency planning rather than defections. Escalation in negotiations or renewed unrest could still shift probabilities, yet current evidence points to sustained regime resilience through the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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